Did your well-planned investment portfolio take a deep dive yesterday? You are not alone. Many suffered huge losses as the general election results were being released. These political events can inject uncertainty into the market, causing wild swings and leaving investors wondering what to do next.
The recent market plunge serves as a stark reminder of the uncertainty surrounding elections. Yesterday’s sharp drop, nearly wiping out the gains of the past four months, highlights investor anxieties. The Nifty almost retested its crucial support level but recovered slightly by the closing bell. This episode underscores the potential for volatility in the near term.
Short-Term Volatility, Long-Term Resilience
However, these short-term jitters tend to fade as markets adjust to the new political landscape. In the medium to long term, markets and businesses typically adapt to new policies, reversing any initial underperformance.
Markets Learn to Adapt
Let’s rewind and see how the market responded to previous general election results. Voter behavior is a fascinating puzzle – it changes with every election, influenced by the prevailing narrative. Interestingly, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) retained power in 1999 with a lower voter turnout, only to lose to the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in the next election (2004) despite a similar turnout. This highlights the complex connection between voter sentiment and election outcomes.
Volatility Spikes Before Election Day
Here’s another interesting pattern: elections often bring a surge in volatility, peaking around the time of results when uncertainty is at its highest. As clarity emerges, volatility tends to decline. This time around, the VIX index (a volatility gauge) has already peaked and is expected to fall further till we get a clearer picture of the government structure and policies.
Positive Outlook After the Dust Settles
Now, let’s talk returns. Here’s some good news! Market data shows that overall stock market returns tend to turn positive within three months of election results. When we look at specific sectors, positive returns are usually seen across the board within six months.
Interestingly, small and mid-cap stocks (SMIDs) have consistently outperformed large caps in past election cycles. Regardless of the election outcome, Sensex and Nifty 50 have historically generated positive returns post-election. Sectors like banking, consumer durables, and information technology have a track record of being among the top performers.
2019: A Case Study in External Factors
It’s important to note that the 2019 election was a bit unpredictable. Global slowdown concerns cast a shadow on market performance, making it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions from that specific period. However, looking back at 2014, when market conditions were more comparable, sectors like autos, consumer durables, and healthcare emerged as leaders after the elections.
A Look Back: Election Day Results and Market Reactions
- 1999: The NDA’s decisive victory led to a 1% jump in the Nifty, reflecting investor confidence in the new government’s leadership and economic policies.
- 2004: A surprise defeat for the NDA sent shockwaves through the market, leading to a sharp 20% plunge in the benchmark indices. This reaction stemmed from concerns about potential policy reversals and a lack of clarity on the new government’s economic agenda.
- 2009: This election saw the strongest post-election rally, with Sensex and Nifty surging over 40% each within a few months. The UPA’s decisive victory coupled with strong foreign inflows, fueled market euphoria.
- 2014: The BJP’s historic win under Narendra Modi’s leadership was met with a positive, but muted, market response. This suggests cautious optimism from investors as they awaited details of the new government’s policies.
- 2019: Global headwinds and weak economic growth dampened market performance, resulting in a modest 4-5% gain for the benchmark indices despite the BJP’s re-election.
The Bottom Line: A Balancing Act
These historical trends paint a clear picture: elections and market behavior are intricately linked. While election outcomes can significantly impact investor sentiment, it’s crucial to remember that other factors, like global events and economic fundamentals, also play a major role in shaping market movements during these critical periods.
As the current market navigates election-induced volatility, the key takeaway for investors is this: exercise caution, stay informed, and focus on long-term strategies. By remaining calm and disciplined, you can manage risk and potentially capitalize on opportunities that might arise amidst the election turbulence.
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I’m Archana R. Chettiar, an experienced content creator with
an affinity for writing on personal finance and other financial content. I
love to write on equity investing, retirement, managing money, and more.