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Economy

This section offers content on things happening in the country. Any news update on India, its GDP, plans and levels globally will be included in this section.

The EV market in India is expected to reach $47 billion by 2026, reducing our reliance on fossil fuels significantly over time. This advancement will increase energy efficiency and lower carbon emissions in the coming years. Government initiatives and eco-consciousness among buyers have opened doors to boundless opportunities for the emerging electric vehicles hub India.

Wondering why EV? What prompted India to be so bullish on the EV industry?

India currently has the fifth-largest automotive industry in the world, and it wants to move up to the third position. India’s transport sector is the largest fossil fuel user, accounting for 33% of our crude oil consumption. Consequently, it is the country’s second-largest source of CO2 emissions, accounting for almost 11% of total CO2 emissions from fuel combustion.

Catalyzing India EV potential to increase energy security and mitigate the negative environmental impacts of ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) vehicles is a must. Furthermore, focusing on the EV sector can open up new opportunities in EV battery and charging infrastructure while relieving the pressure on oil imports.

Electric Vehicle Hub India Future

With looming oil crisis, growing global warming, and increasing ailments due to poor air quality have triggered the demand for EVs in India. 

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Vehicle Category-wise market share

More than 10 million EV vehicles are expected to be sold in India by 2030, with the two-wheeler category driving most of the growth. In India, the two-wheeler segment currently dominates the EV industry.

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Among other measures, proper collaborative actions, reliable charging infrastructure, direct subsidies, further tax incentives, and easier norms for PLI eligibility undoubtedly unlock India EV potential.

5 Reasons Why Electric Vehicles Hub India is Possible

Governments worldwide are providing subsidies to encourage more consumers to choose electric vehicles over fossil-fuel-powered vehicles. 

Lower Operating and Maintenance cost

The decision to purchase any vehicle is primarily influenced by two factors: maintenance costs and operating costs. Unlike gasoline vehicles, electric cars have very few moving parts that break or need to be replaced. Furthermore, you spend less on fuel/energy, making it a very cost-effective option.

Eco-Friendly

Electric Vehicles have zero tailpipe emissions, allowing you to reduce your carbon footprint significantly. It can help save our environment from climate change and reduce the health issues caused by pollution.

Less Driving Fatigue

With electric vehicles, you can enjoy a stress-free and noise-free drive as these vehicles are gearless. In addition, the motors are less noisy than combustion engines and their exhaust systems. Therefore, less noise can help to reduce noise pollution.

Hassle-Free Charging

With 1800 electric vehicle battery charging stations already in place and many more on the way, charging your battery will be simpler than standing in queue for petrol/CNG refills. Using charging equipment, you can recharge your vehicle from the comfort of your home.

Tax Benefits

If you take a car loan to buy an electric vehicle, you can claim a deduction of Rs. 1 lac under Section 80 EEB on the interest paid. The government has reduced the GST on electric vehicles from 12% to 5%. The new Green Tax Policy requires you to pay road tax only when you renew your registration certificate after 15 years.

 India’s Challenges in the transition to electric vehicles

Lack of Charging Infrastructure

Availability of land for charging infrastructure building and electricity grid readiness are two critical bottlenecks to deep electric vehicle penetration in India.

Supply Chain Challenges

The reliance on imported automobile components such as lithium-ion batteries and semiconductors discourages companies interested in investing in the electric vehicles industry. Moreover, according to experts, battery shortages will reduce global production capacity by more than 20 million between 2020 and 29.

Battery Life

EV batteries are designed to last for a maximum of 6-8 years. As a result, when the battery’s life expires, the user is forced to purchase a new battery, which costs nearly 75% of the total vehicle cost. In the long run, such high battery costs could affect buyer psychology.

 Government policies to become a global EV hub

One of the key factors impeding the market penetration of EVs in India is the low acceptance rate. 

FAME- I & II

These schemes were launched in 2015 and 2019 to encourage the adoption of EVs in India and to reduce the use of gasoline and diesel in automobiles. It focused on supporting 5,00,000 e-3Wheelers, 7000 e-Buses, 55,000 e-passenger vehicles, and over a million 2-Wheelers with a budget of Rs. 10,000 crores.

PLI Scheme

Launched in June 2021 under the flagship mission “Atmanirbhar Bharat,” the PLI scheme was designed to entice domestic and international investors to invest in India’s Giga Scale ACC manufacturing facilities. Total Rs. 18,100 crores to be paid out over five years after the production facility becomes operational.

Special E-Mobility Zone 

Allocating mobility zones for electric vehicles will aid in preventing overcrowding caused by private cars. This, in turn, will help to increase the EV market share by encouraging more consumers to buy or rent one.

Lowering of Custom Duty

The government has lowered import duty on vital raw materials to give a competitive edge to domestic production of EV batteries. Custom duty on Nickel Ore has been reduced from 5% to 0%, Nickel Oxide from 10% to 0%, Ferro Nickel from 15% to 2.5%

Key Takeaways

India has become one of the most alluring destinations for investment in the manufacturing sector. Legacy players are catching speed, and many enthusiastic start-ups are ready to jump on the EV bandwagon. In the next decade, India can become the electric vehicle hub with a well-connected roadmap to build a sustainable and intelligent e-mobility landscape.

FAQs

What are Electric Vehicles?

Vehicles that deploy electric motors instead of ICE for power generation are called EVs.

What are the types of Electric Vehicles?

EVs can be Plug-in, Space Rover, Off-and On, Airborne Powered, Range-extended, Railborne, or Seaborne. And Electrically Powered Spacecraft types.

Read more:  How Long-term investing helps create life-changing wealth – TOI

Overview of the Steel Industry

Steel production emits over 3 billion metric tonnes of CO2 annually, making it the industrial material with the most significant impact on climate change. Owing to the energy-intensive manufacturing processes, the steel industry accounts for nearly 9% of total GHG emissions in the country. Furthermore, Indian steel companies import coking coal worth $ 8 -10 billion, accounting for almost 2% of India’s total import bill.

import export steel

As the government plans to double India’s steel manufacturing capacity to 300 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by 2030, the steel industry coal usage, high CO2 emissions, and import dependence are expected to grow significantly.

Let us dig a little deeper into the Decarbonisation challenges and how the Indian steel industry is resilient in finding innovative solutions to boost our economic growth.

Transitions in the Indian Steel Sector

India plans to double its steel production capacity by 2030 compared to 2019 and achieve the voluntary net-zero emissions target by 2070. As a result, India’s policymaking is critical in accelerating the transition of the steel industry from a coal-intensive sector to green technologies.

We can ensure a smooth transition to energy efficient steel industry through retrofitting modern technologies, utilization of waste heat, use of better quality inputs, etc. 

Recently, PHDCCI organized a conclave that industry leaders attended to create a robust and structured mechanism to boost steel production to 300 MTPA levels in India. It requested that the government must establish a regulatory body for the steel industry to control rising steel prices, which have a direct impact on the ease of doing business and productivity of MSMEs. 

Carbon Emissions in the Indian Steel Industry

The energy consumption in India’s integrated steel industry is estimated to be 6-6.5 Giga calories per tonne, which is significantly higher than the global consumption benchmark of 4-4.5. It necessitates the development of an effective roadmap to reduce reliance on emission-intensive methods of steel production.

Antiquated plant infrastructure, old plant floors, operating practices, and poor quality raw materials such as high ash coal/coke and high alumina iron ore cause hard-to-abate emission in the steel industry. 

India is the only steel producer across the World to use Coal as the primary source of energy to separate oxygen from iron. This in turn adds to CO2 emissions. India to meet its pledge to mitigate CO2 emissions by 33% by 2030 needs viable green fuel alternatives. 

finished prices

 Challenges to Decarbonisation in the Steel Industry

Major challenges the Steel industry faces are-

  • Dependence on coal to produce high heat in the blast furnaces and a vital part of the production process.
  • Small businesses struggle with EBITDA due to low-profit margins and high capital intensity, so bearing the cost of decarbonization comes as a shock.
  • As also recommended by PHDCCI, the National apex body promoting the development of industries, there is a need for robust policy and incentives to make steel production more competitive.
  • There is a scarcity of high-quality iron ore suitable for decarbonization via the direct reduced iron-electric arc furnace (DRI-EAF).
  • Shortage of skilled workforce to support the steel industry’s low-carbon energy transition.
  • The present decarbonization methods are expensive. Green Hydrogen costs ~ Rs. 450 – 525 a kilo. Even carbon-reducing methods like EAF recycling involve high investments.

Decarbonization Strategies for the Steel Industry

1. Renewable Alternatives to Coal for lowering greenhouse gas emissions

Using Syngas Gas

Syngas is synthetic gas prepared by mixing hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide in varying ratios.  Steelmaking using syngas is a revolutionary technique used to make DRI(direct reduced iron) in JSPL, Angul-I site. It is the World’s first DRI plant to use syngas as a reducing agent paired with a coal gasifier to produce sponge iron.

Using Green Hydrogen 

Recently Reliance Industries invested Rs. 75000 crores in producing clean energies like Hydrogen and Solar power. Other companies, too, are optimistic about the transition to green Hydrogen production. However, the growth of the steel industry to green hydrogen may appear costly now, leading to an increase in steel prices.

But its cost efficiency will increase over time. The high emission levels of fossil-based fuels will eventually raise the cost of coal, lowering the cost of renewable energies.

Using Solar Power

Tata Steel has partnered with Tata Power to build a 41-MW solar project in Jharkhand and Odisha. The project will generate solar power for the Jamshedpur and Kalinger steel production facilities using rooftop, floating, and ground-mounted solar panels, saving 45,210 metric tonnes of CO2 per year. Solar Power will play a key role in sustaining green steel production in India. 

2. Recycling of Steel Scrap

Globally, ~ 630 million tonnes of steel scrap are recycled annually, resulting in an annual CO2 emission reduction of approximately 950 million tons. In addition, reusing steel scrap reduces emissions by 86%, water consumption by 40%, and water pollution by 70%. Therefore, steel scrap recycling conserves energy and valuable natural resources, aiding the battle against climate change. 

3. Adopting Energy efficient measures

Greenhouse gas emissions can be easily captured and traded back to the market using Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CUS). Carbon storage steel can help companies reduce costs while moving toward net zero targets. Switching to energy-efficient ways such as Electric Arc Furnaces (EAF), optimizing the blast furnace mix, using biomass, new fuel injection technologies, etc., will help the steel industry decarbonize.

Key Takeaways

In 2022-23, the government allocated Rs. 47 crores to the Ministry of Steel to make India competitive in the global steel industry and achieve net zero ambitions. As a result, in India, crude steel production increased by 20.4% YOY, producing 96.9 MT of crude oil. As a result, India appears to be on track to become the world’s leading producer of green steel through an increase in energy-efficient production.

Disclaimer*: The numbers mentioned in this article are for information purposes only. He/she should not consider this a buy/sell/hold recommendation from Research & Ranking. The company shall not be liable for any losses that occur.

FAQs

What is Decarbonization?

Decarbonization is the process of reducing the carbon content in metals.

Why is Carbon used as input in the Steel Industry?

Carbon is a hardener, controlling ductility, hardness, and tensile strength.

Read more:  How Long-term investing helps create life-changing wealth – TOI.

Indian handicrafts are a vital part of the country’s cultural and economic fabric, with a long history dating back to ancient times. These handmade, traditional crafts are created using various materials, including wood, metal, textiles, and more, and are known for their intricate designs and high quality.

In recent years, the export of Indian handicrafts has been steadily rising, making it a significant contributor to the country’s economy.

Importance of Handicrafts Industry

One of the key benefits of the handicrafts sector is that it employs millions of artisans and craftspeople across the country, many of whom come from rural and disadvantaged communities. As a result, the industry is a vital income source for these individuals and supports the growth and development of their communities.

In addition to economic benefits, the handicrafts sector also plays a vital role in preserving and promoting India’s rich cultural heritage. Many handicrafts are created using traditional techniques and materials essential to the country’s cultural identity.

In recent years, the export of Indian handicrafts has been steadily rising, making it a significant contributor to the country’s economy. The steady growth in exports of Indian handicrafts has played a crucial role in driving economic growth and development in the country.

The growth of the Indian handicrafts market has been supported by advances in online availability and the expansion of the country’s travel and tourism industry.

As more tourists visit India, they spend money on souvenirs and other craft items, providing local artisans and craftspeople with increased opportunities to produce and sell their products. Additionally, the rising demand for handmade decor accessories in homes, offices, and restaurants, as well as from the gifting industry, has contributed to market growth.

The handicrafts sector is economically viable due to its low capital investment, high value-addition ratio, and high export potential.

Current Indian Handicraft Market

In 2022, the size of the Indian handicrafts market reached US$ 3,968.0 million. According to IMARC Group, this market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.7% between 2023 and 2028, reaching a size of US$ 6,218.4 million by 2028.

The Indian handicraft industry is supported by a network of 744 clusters that employ approximately 212,000 artisans and offer more than 35,000 products.

Some major clusters are Surat, Bareilly, Varanasi, Agra, Hyderabad, Lucknow, Chennai, and Mumbai. Many of these manufacturing units are situated in rural and small towns, but there is the significant market potential for their products in cities throughout India and abroad.

Covid-19 Impact On the Handicrafts Industry

The Covid-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the handicraft industry, with decreased demand and sales, supply chain disruptions, and adverse effects on the livelihoods of artisans and handicraft producers.

Products in the Handicraft Industry

Woodware, Artmetal wares, handprinted textiles, embroidered goods, zari goods, imitation jewelry, sculptures, pottery, glassware, attars, agarbattis, and other items are produced in the country. Female artisans account for more than 56% of the total artisan population in India.

Below is the graph showing the percentage increase/decrease in handicraft products.

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Source: Export Promotion Council of Handicraft

Export Trends

India is one of the top exporters of handicrafts and the market leader in both volume and value for handmade carpets. India exported US$ 120.06 million worth of handicrafts in May 2022, an increase of 1.01% from April 2022 (excluding handmade carpets).

Total exports of Indian handicrafts were valued at US$ 4.35 billion in 2021-22, a 25.7% increase over the previous year. Exports of handmade products, particularly carpets, have increased steadily over the last three years.

The following graph shows that Indian handicraft exports rose from 2016 to 2022.

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Source: Export Promotion Council of Handicraft
*Data excludes exports of carpets

Export Destination

Due to their uniqueness and exceptional beauty, demand for Indian handicraft products in foreign markets has steadily risen. The graph below depicts India’s main handicraft export destinations.

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Source: Export Promotion Council of Handicraft

India exports carpets to over 70 countries, with the main markets being the United States, Australia, and Europe.

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Source: IBEF

The USA is a significant purchaser of shawls, zari woods, embroidered items, and handprinted textiles. Carpet exports to the United States were valued at more than US$1.2 billion in 2021-22.

The United Kingdom buys art, crocheted items, handmade handicrafts, wood wares, and imitation jewelry from India. The country has also been a significant importer of handmade carpets from India. In addition, the UAE is a substantial purchaser of handprinted textiles, embroidery goods, and art metalware.

Handprinted textiles, imitation jewelry, embroidery items, and art metals are popular purchases in Germany, which spent US$116.64 million on carpets in 2021-22.

Piyush Goyal’s take on the Indian handicrafts industry.

Union Commerce and Textiles Minister Piyush Goyal stated that Indian handicraft exports have been steadily increasing and are superior to machine-made products. Goyal emphasized the importance of the handmade products industry for a self-reliant India and mentioned the efforts of artisans to contribute to the “Atmanirbhar” (self-reliant) movement. He also said the need to work towards creating an inclusive society in India by 2047.

Government Initiatives

The National Handicraft Development Programme and the Comprehensive Handicrafts Cluster Development Scheme support and promote the handicraft industry in India through initiatives such as design and technology upgrades, training, marketing events, and shared facilities. These programs aim to increase exports and assist artisans and entrepreneurs in establishing modern units.

Final Words

India has a diverse and vibrant handicraft industry with various products, including textiles, ceramics, metalwork, and woodwork. The sector is an essential source of income and a significant contributor to the country’s economy, with India exporting handicrafts to many countries worldwide.

FAQs

What challenge is faced by handicrafts in India?

The handicraft industry in India faces challenges such as competition from cheaper mass-produced goods and difficulties in accessing markets and credit.

Which state is famous for making Indian handicrafts?

India has many states known for their particular handicraft products, such as Rajasthan for textiles and leatherwork, Gujarat for textiles and metalwork, Tamil Nadu for handloom textiles and leatherwork, and so on few of the examples.

Read more:  How Long-term investing helps create life-changing wealth – TOI.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reaffirmed UK’s commitment to a free trade agreement with India, stating that it would be a “win-win” for both nations. This move comes as part of a broader effort to deepen the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the UK and India, which Rishi Sunak announced earlier this year.

The UK-India Young Professionals Scheme

The UK-India Young Professionals Scheme was confirmed in late November 2022 and is just one example of the potential benefits of such an agreement. This scheme aims to strengthen ties between the two countries by providing young professionals with the opportunity to work and learn in each other’s countries. For up to two years, it offers 3,000 seats for degree-educated Indians between 18 and 30 to live and work in the UK.

But the potential impact of a free trade agreement between the UK and India goes far beyond just the exchange of young professionals. India is the world’s most important source of undiscovered and undervalued talent. A free trade agreement with the UK could provide Indian businesses with much-needed access to the UK market. It could lead to increased investment and job creation in India, helping to drive the Indian economy.

At the same time, the UK would also stand to benefit from such an agreement. India is a rapidly growing market with a middle class population. Access to this market could significantly boost UK businesses, particularly in the technology, healthcare, and education sectors.

India accounts for about 25% of all international students in the UK, and Indian investment in the country has produced or supported 95,000 jobs. In addition, statistics from the UK Home Office show that in the year ending June 2022, over 1,18,000 Indian students were granted student visas for the nation. It is an increase from the prior year of approximately 90%.

Free Trade Agreement

Overall, a free trade agreement between the UK and India would be a win-win situation for both countries. It would provide opportunities for businesses and professionals in both nations and could increase investment and job creation.

It would also strengthen the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the UK and India with significant political and strategic implications. It is encouraging to see Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s dedication to such a deal, and the plan is that talks will progress smoothly in the months and years to come.

The bilateral trade between the UK and India presently amounts to about GBP 24.3 billion annually. However, according to official UK government figures, the goal is to at least double that by 2030. Rishi Sunak is taking an investor approach to strengthening the India-UK relationship.

According to Rishi Sunak, in contrast to Europe and North America combined, the Indo-Pacific region will account for more than half of global growth by 2050. As a result, we are signing a new Free Trade Agreement with India, pursuing one with Indonesia, and joining the CPTPP, a Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement.

Final Words

Rishi Sunak’s dedication to this agreement demonstrates United Kingdom’s determination to maintain a positive and fruitful relationship with India. It would expand economic prospects and improve the link between the two countries.

FAQs

Is there an alliance between India and the United Kingdom?

Strong historical and cultural ties exist between India and the UK. With its upgrade to a Strategic Partnership in 2004, India’s multifaceted bilateral engagement with the UK became more intense.

Does the UK value India?

As evidenced by the signing of the Defence and International Security Partnership between India and the UK in 2015, India is a crucial strategic partner for the UK in the Indo-Pacific regarding market share and defense.

How has Rishi Sunak’s approach to the India-UK relationship been received in India?

Rishi Sunak’s approach to the India-UK relationship has generally been well-received in India. Indian officials have welcomed his efforts to strengthen ties between the two countries and have praised his commitment to deepening cooperation in areas such as trade, investment, and technology. Sunak’s visits to India have also been seen as an opportunity to reaffirm the strong and longstanding relationship between the two countries and explore new cooperation areas.

How does Rishi Sunak, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, view the India-UK relationship?

As the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak is responsible for managing the UK’s economic and financial policies, including its relations with other countries. Sunak has stated that he views the India-UK relationship as a “key partnership” and has emphasized the importance of deepening ties between the two countries in trade, investment, and technology. He has also highlighted the potential for further cooperation in defense and security and has expressed a desire to further strengthen the UK’s relationship with India.

Read more:  How Long-term investing helps create life-changing wealth – TOI.

The 18th of November, 2022, will be remembered as a watershed moment in the Space Tech history of India. On this day, India successfully launched its first private rocket, named Vikram S.

The rocket is a tribute to Vikram Sarabhai, widely regarded as the father of the Indian space program. Under the supervision of ISRO, the 545-Kg rocket Vikram S (VKS) was launched at 11:30 a.m. sharp from the Satish Dhawan Space Centre in Sriharikota. VKS hit an apogee of 89.5 kilometers before splashing into the Bay of Bengal 5 minutes after its launch.

Features of Vikram S – India’s first Rocket Launch

VKS has been designed and built by Skyroot, a brainchild of two promising engineers, Pawan Chandana and Bharath Daka. Vikram S, India’s first private rocket launched, can reach Mach 5, or five times the speed of light. It can even transport an 83 kg payload to a height of 100 kilometers.

Vikram-S has been unimaginatively built in a record time of just 2 years. Its success marked the foray of private players into the Space Tech dominated by the Government owned Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO).

The body mass of India’s first private rocket launched is 545 kg, the length is 6 meters, and the diameter is 0.375 meters. It is one of the most affordably priced launch vehicles. VKS carried three payloads into space- two from Indian customers (namely Chennai’s Spacekidz and Andra Pradesh’s N-Space Tech) and 1 foreign customer ( Armenian BazoomQ Space Research Lab)

India’s first private rocket launched, Vikram-S, is a single-stage spin-stabilized solid propellant rocket fuelled by cutting-edge aviation technology and a carbon core structure. The historic launch was a part of the Mission Prarambh, which marks a new beginning of the journey of private players in the Space launch sector.

Vikram-S (VKS) is a Small Satellite Launch Vehicle (SSLV) capable of delivering payloads weighing between 290 and 560 kg into sun-synchronous polar orbits. The Kalam-80 engine, named after our former President and renowned ISRO scientist Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam, powers VKS.

About Mission Prarambh

The mission, codenamed Prarambh, earmarks the foray of private players into the space launch market. This mission is authorized by IN-SPACe, a nodal body framed by the Government of India for permitting private companies to enter the Space market.

Vikram-S, India’s first private rocket launched, took off under the flagship program of Mission Prarambh. In June 2020, PM Narendra Modi announced the inauguration of IN-SPACe as the autonomous nodal agency to take care of the needs of the private payers entering the Space Tech.

ISRO will act as a facilitator for private companies, providing infrastructure, support, and guidance as needed. In addition, IN-SPACe is vested with the responsibility to track the space activities of both the Government and private bodies.

ISRO is looking to partner with private entities to expand its launch capacity as demand for satellites grows and more industries prepare to move into space.

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About Skyroot and its Future Plans

Skyroot is a Hyderabad-based startup founded by two ingenious IIT engineers, Pawan Chandana and Bharat Daka, in 2018. Skyroot has set an ambitious target of reducing the developmental costs of launching small satellites by up to 90 %. It is the first private company to design and launch a rocket into space. So far, private player contributions to space tech have been limited to producing parts and systems for ISRO.

The ambitious launch of Vikram-S has paved the way for the active participation of private players such as Skyroot in Space Tech. After experiencing one-shot success with VKS, the company intends to launch more than 20,000 small satellites in stages over the next ten years.

Through its unparalleled mass production, the company intends to make satellite launching as simple as booking a cab. In the Vikram Series, Vikram I, Vikram II, and Vikram III will follow VKS. In addition, the company envisages using Space Tech to drive Vikram-S, Kalam-80, and 3-D printed thrusters in the upcoming Vikram series.

The upcoming Vikram series will use a variety of solid and cryogenic fuels and have a carbon composite core structure. Skyroot has received $68 million in funding, making it the most funding received by any Indian Space Tech start-up.

Booster for the Start-up Community

The event was graced by Dr. Jitendra Singh, Union Minister of Science and Space Technology, and MOS PMO, Atomic Energy and Space. He described the historic success of VKS, India’s first private rocket launched, as a defining moment for the country’s start-up movement.

After the successful launch of VKS, Dr. Jitendra Singh congratulated the Nation and thanked PM Narendra Modi for allowing Space Tech for public-private partnerships. He further enlightened us that ISRO has received applications from over 100 start-ups for collaborations in various areas of Space Tech.

Contribution to the Indian Economy

India occupies the sixth position in the list of most active countries in space exploration, and the USA leads the list. The shares of communication activities are expected to rise from 26 % to 50% of the global space economy by 2040. This growth will be achieved through improving space-based technology for research and exploration.

image 1 space
Image Source: Statista

Considering the present global space tech revenue to be 469.3 bn USD, India has significant untapped potential for boosting the economy.

space 2
I

Key Takeaways

The success of Vikram-S, India’s first private launch, will help many private entities realize their space ambitions. In addition, the entry of more private Space Tech firms into the space market would allow ISRO to use funds for research on impending missions.

While most Indian start-ups are still pre-commercial, a more significant influx of funds is expected as more space tech missions succeed.

FAQs

How much does it take for a Vikram-S rocket to launch?

India’s first private rocIndia’snched, VKS, can be assembled and launched in less than 72 hours.

How long does the VKS, India’s first rocket lauIndia’ske to completion?

The take-off gets completed in just 300 seconds.

Read more:  How Long-term investing helps create life-changing wealth – TOI.

Indian economic growth is overtaking the world economy. India is on track to overtake Japan and Germany as the world’s third-largest economy by 2027. After the COVID-19 epidemic, India’s economy showed strong indications of recovery in FY22.

Per IBEF, India’s GDP at current prices is projected to reach $ 447.44 billion (Rs. 36.85 lakh crore) in the first quarter of 2022–23, up from$ 394.13 billion (Rs. 32.46 lakh crore) in 2021–22, which is a growth rate of 13.5%.

image 11
Source: IBEF

According to these numbers, India is the world’s fastest-growing major economy. The Indian investment industry has benefited from this Indian economic growth. Domestic investments in the Indian market have increased from retail investors, mutual funds, and PE/VC firms. India stock market will be the third-largest in the world by 2030. Furthermore, it offers a developing and prosperous ecosystem for domestic and foreign investments in the India economy.

Domestic Investment in Indian Economic Growth

Retail investors made up an all-time high of 7.42% of shareholders in companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) as of March 31, 2022, up from 7.33% as of December 31, 2021.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Indian Economic Growth

The development of India’s financial system, infrastructure enhancement, and easing restrictions on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has contributed to the country’s investment boom. So, the government has promoted a favorable FDI policy to investors, with most sectors allowing 100% FDI via the automatic mechanism for better Indian economic growth.

The FDI policy is also revised frequently to keep the India stock market a desirable and welcoming place for investors. As a result, the India economy achieved its highest-ever annual FDI influx of $ 83.57 billion in FY22, an astounding 85.09% increase over FDI inflows of $ 45.15 billion in FY15.

A 76% YoY increase from $ 12.09 billion in FY21, FDI equity inflows into the manufacturing sector totaled $ 21.34 billion in FY22. Singapore had the most significant FDI equity inflow into India in FY22, followed by the US and Mauritius, as shown in the pie chart below.

image 12
Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry

The top two States receiving FDI for FY22 are Karnataka and Maharashtra.

image 13
Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry

The manufacturing sectors have seen a 76% growth in FDI equity inflow in FY 2021–2022 (USD 21.34 billion). On the other hand, the Computer Software and Hardware and the Services Sector have received the subsequent highest sector FDI Equity Inflow during FY2021–2022.

image 18
Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry

Private Equity (PE)/Venture Capital (VC)

India’s Private Equity (PE)/Venture Capital (VC) investment environment is likewise scaling new heights, with growth in deal size, deal activity, and fundraising, as well as developments in term sheets and benchmarking procedures. So, PE/VC investment activity reached $ 34.1 billion across 714 deals in the first half of 2022 (January-June), representing a 28% YoY surge adding to the Indian economic growth. PE/VC made the most significant investments in startups, totaling $ 13.3 billion across 506 ventures.

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Source: IVCA-EY Report

Let’s observe the factors that make India a desirable investment.

Global Offshore Workforce: One of the main forces behind the expansion of India’s economy has been outsourcing a wide range of services to that country. India has become a popular destination for companies looking to outsource non-core activities due to its large English-speaking workforce and low labor costs. As a result, the country’s services sector has expanded to account for more than half of its GDP in Indian economic growth.

Over the next decade, the number of people working in India for jobs outside the country is expected to more than double, reaching over 11 million, as global outsourcing spending rises from $180 billion per year to around $500 billion by 2030, according to Morgan Stanley Research. CEOs today are more at ease with working from home and India in a post-Covid environment.

India’s Consumer Spending, Credit, and Digitization: India consumer spending has skyrocketed. Non-grocery retail is seeing the most growth, including apparel and accessories, leisure and recreation, and household goods and services, among other things.

India’s income distribution could shift over the next decade, causing overall consumption to double from $2 trillion in 2022 to $4.9 trillion by the end of the decade. As India’s income distribution shifts, India’s overall consumption could more than double.

image 20
Source: Morgan Stanley Report

Over a decade ago, India launched the Aadhaar national identification program, which laid the groundwork for a more digital economy. Among other things, the Aadhar system generates biometric IDs to establish proof of residency and has been instrumental in digitizing financial transactions.

This project is now a component of IndiaStack, a decentralized public utility that provides a low-cost comprehensive digital identity, payment, and data-management system. IndiaStack has many applications, including a network for lowering credit costs and making loans more accessible and affordable to consumers and businesses. Credit availability is a critical factor in economic growth. The Morgan Stanley Research team estimates that the credit ratio to India’s GDP over the following decade could rise from 57% to 100%.

India’s Energy Access and Transition: India’s energy access and transition is the third pitch. India’s economic growth has traditionally been linked to the price of oil. However, optimists predict a significant green energy transition that will attract more investment and make India’s energy self-sufficient and competitive.

According to India Utilities and Industrials analyst, the increase in India’s energy sector investments will contribute to a virtuous investment cycle, with more jobs and income, savings, and in turn, more investment.

India’s Government Initiatives

The Indian government is undertaking several initiatives to boost the country’s economy, including structural reforms, infrastructure investment, and the promotion of entrepreneurship and innovation. These policies create a favorable environment for business growth and the overall expansion of India’s economy.

Manufacturing is another area where India has the potential for significant growth. The government has launched initiatives, such as the “Make in India” campaign, to promote the country as a manufacturing hub and attract investment in this sector. If these initiatives are successful, they may help to create jobs and propel Indian economic growth.

Apple may have migrated some of its manufacturing facilities to India during the year due to a substantial increase in iPhone 14 production. The business is currently finalizing the launch of iPad production in India.

The table below shows the manufacturing sector’s annual growth rate, as the National Informatics Center reported, demonstrating the industry’s steady but slow growth.

image 17
Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry

The startup ecosystem in India is one area where India is seeing significant growth. The country is home to many technology startups dedicated to providing innovative solutions in fields such as e-commerce, fintech, and healthcare.

These startups are attracting significant investment from both domestic and foreign investors, and they are critical to Indian economic growth. However, investing in India is a long-term strategy. Therefore, it has some dangers, such as a protracted global recession, unfavorable geopolitical developments, changes in domestic policy, a shortage of skilled labor, energy constraints, and commodity volatility.

Final Words

As India’s economy develops over the next decade, it will become more relevant to global investors in the same way China is today. Emerging Market expert Mark Mobius is also allocating his investments to India. India’s upcoming decade may mimic China’s trajectory from 2007 to 2012. According to Morgan Stanley Reports, India has the most compelling growth prospect in Asia in the following years.

This customizable portfolio of the top long-term stocks from Research & Ranking will help you diversify, lower risk, and increase returns. It is called the 5-in-5 Wealth Creation Strategy. That may enable you to fulfill your long-term financial goals. So, invest in equity.

FAQs

How has the rupee performed during the year 2022?

In 2022, the Indian Rupee performed reasonably well compared to its counterparts from other emerging markets. Over this year, the rupee’s value has decreased by almost 10%. Even while it sounds like a lot, India hasn’t fared all that poorly compared to many of its peers in the emerging market.

Which industries in India are thriving?

The top sectors which are thriving and showing future growth are:
1. Healthcare and Insurance Sector
2. Renewable energy sector
3. IT Sector
4. Fast-Moving Consumer Goods Sector

India envisions excellent traction for digital healthcare in the coming years as a sustainable solution to meet unmet needs. However, a broader healthcare ecosystem and appropriate infrastructure are required to support the digital endeavor.

COVID-19 has been the cornerstone of emerging innovations in digital healthcare tools. Responsive to the pandemic, communities, and countries worldwide are now gearing up to scale up digital tools. Digital healthcare tools gained significance when the pandemic strained the global medical systems. In a crisis, these tools enhanced efficiency and enabled almost real-time data sharing, aggregation, and analysis.

Everyone is covered by digital healthcare, from healthcare professionals and managers to end users, such as caregivers and patients.

Global Digital Health Summit in India

India hosted its first-ever Global Digital Health Summit, Expo, and Innovation Awards in New Delhi on 22nd October. The two-day Global Digital Health Summit was inaugurated at Vigyan Bhawan, New Delhi. The grand event marked the launch of Digital Health Mission. United Nations and several other global bodies working towards digital healthcare tools attended this prestigious summit.

Sri Jitendra Singh, the Union Minister of State, believes that the launch of 5G will aid in digitalizing healthcare services. While speaking at the event, the Union Minister stated that India has been an example to other countries. Other countries look up to India for how it handled such a large and diverse population.

  • Democratization of Technology: The Global event emphasized that nearly 80% of individual doctors, small clinics, and small hospitals are still not using technology. Their concerns stem from the return on their investment in technology and application methods. The summit aims to enlighten healthcare providers about adopting new technologies.
  • Plan for modernizing traditional medical practices: This interactive summit sheds light on how 5G, Metaverse, and other technological advancements can reshape the standard medical setup. Eminent global leaders discussed how the latest technology can boost the return on investment for an individual or an organization.
  • Government Initiatives and Strategies for Digital Health Revolution: In this article section, we will learn how India is accelerating its pace to establish its digital healthcare footprint. We will also discuss the initiatives taken to leapfrog our penetration to the most remote parts of the country.

These initiatives are targeted to build our digital healthcare tools and digital infrastructure of the country. In addition, the Make in India initiative includes producing indigenous goods and developing autonomous healthcare systems.

The primary organizations responsible for governing and implementing the various initiatives are- the Ministry of Health and Family Affairs, the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, and the National Health Authority.
Ms. Binu Sharma, Senior Director of Nursing at Max HealthCare Institute, and other dignitaries from hospitals, pharma, and clinicians addressed the summit on the challenges and solutions of adopting Digital Healthcare tools.

About National Digital Health Mission (NDHM)

Digital Health Mission 01

On the eve of our 74th Independence Day, our Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, launched the National Digital Health Mission. Our present digital infrastructure that connects people through Aadhar-based identification acts as a launching pad for NHDM.

NHDM is universal health coverage that is secure, inclusive, effective, and affordable. A few of the salient features of the scheme include the following-

  • Digi Doctor A repository of doctors with complete details such as name, address, experience, specialization, etc. This data will be shared and updated regularly.
  • Health Id- A unique Health Id (UHID) similar to Aadhar.The individual’s previous medical history and investigation results will be shared with healthcare providers and stakeholders with their consent.
  • Health Facility Register– Collective database of private and public health facilities across the country.
  • Personal Health Records (PHR)– Medical data of an individual in electronic form that can be accessed across multiple channels. Only the concerned individual can edit/update the PHR records.
  • Electronic Medical Records (EMR)– This application will hold all the patient details, such as past illness history and the line of treatment adopted. An essential tool for health providers to monitor health and suggest investigations when required.

Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission

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Source: https://ndhm.gov.in

Our honorable PM launched the ABDM in August 2021 as the next step toward developing digital healthcare tools. This initiative is envisaged to standardize and simplify the healthcare system in the country. This scheme allows for digital consultation and the preservation of old medical histories while protecting the patient’s health-related information privacy.

The Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission’s essential parts include the following.

  • ABHA Number- Ayushman Bharat Health Account (ABHA) number is unique to each patient. Accessing medical records is not possible without proper authentication and consent of the patient.
  • Healthcare Professionals Registry (HPR)- Healthcare professionals who practice on traditional or digital platforms can now enroll here to provide their services.
  • Health Facility Register (HFR)– Inclusion in this repository will allow healthcare professionals to stay connected to India’s digital ecosystem.
  • Unified Health Interface (UHI)- Bridge the gap between patient and healthcare provider by facilitating teleconsultation and other services.
  • ABHA Mobile App (PHR)- Health-related information of an individual conforming to the national standards and privacy laws.

Revolutionizing Healthcare by Digitalizing Pharma Supply Chain

NHDM aims to achieve a resilient digital healthcare infrastructure in the country by investing in the digitalization of the pharma supply chain. Integrating digital healthcare tools and AI-driven technology to create a database that can be used for chronic disease treatment and human welfare.

Key Takeaways

India is at the cusp of a digital health revolution. Emerging health technologies such as telemedicine and artificial intelligence are changing India’s healthcare system landscape. With the growing global adoption of therapeutic digital healthcare tools investing in these tools is the right way to create a massive backup for research and convenience.

Increasing investments could also mean great opportunities to invest in stocks of such businesses. Invest only after thoroughly studying the company’s moats, opportunities, and financials. If you are confused, connect with a financial advisor to plan your investments.

FAQs

What are digital tools in healthcare?

Digital healthcare tools are software applications developed to improve healthcare services. These tools are used for clinical decision support or automating administrative or research processes within healthcare systems. These tools include robotic process automation (RPA), Blockchain for EHR, virtual clinical trials, and more.

What are 5 common technological devices used in healthcare?

The common tech devices used in healthcare are automated IV pumps, portable monitors, wearable devices, smart beds, and electronic health records.

What are the 4 significant digital challenges in the healthcare industry?

Interoperability, cybersecurity, privacy, and misinformation are four significant challenges in the healthcare industry.

Read more:  How Long-term investing helps create life-changing wealth – TOI.

Foreign trade in the current economic landscape is centered around US dollars. Financial experts refer to it as the ‘Dominant Currency Paradigm’ or DCP as it is undoubtedly the ‘go to’ monetary source, destination, and vehicle currency for most countries to carry out foreign trade.

This has been the case historically.                              

What’s the Backstory of the Trade Through Rupee Accounts?

The role and dominance of the dollar in foreign trade have been brought into question as the Biden administration, for the first time, attributed ‘inflation’ as a critical global threat with the likes of Russia and China. However, the US Strategy paper said that this inflation was no longer a domestic issue and highlighted the struggle of people all over the world.

You can lay partial blame on the Russia – Ukraine war and the pandemic that were the key reasons behind bolstering price rise and inflation across the globe.

The Federal Reserve, the US central bank, has periodically increased interest rates to curb price rise and inflation on the domestic front. However, it has not helped drive a reverse price rise trend in the long term. The significant consequence of this has been felt across developing nations despite many of them not carrying out foreign trade with the US directly.

What Does It All Mean for India and its People?

Inflation in the US spreading across the globe has led to a weakening rupee against the dollar as the US bank rates keep rising intermittently. This has created concern at the national level despite other vital factors, such as a positive increase in GDP driving growth in the Indian economy.

The typical Indian is the one who is most impacted by the weakening rupee and increase in dollar rates as India continues to transact the bulk of its foreign trade in US dollars. It will help to put things into perspective.

When it comes to India’s foreign trade, 60% of financial transactions are done in US dollars, 86% of which are for imports alone. Even if the exporter settles in rupees, the sovereign-level transaction happens in US dollars.

  • Every year India imports significant quantities of gram and dals which ultimately is food for Indians both rich and poor.
  • Palm oil is also a key commodity that India imports, which many Indian households use.
  • Also, consider the Indian students who are currently enrolled in US universities where parents are having to fund their education by shelling out more because the rupee is weak against the dollar

In a nutshell, the rise of the US dollar has been detrimental to India’s foreign trade.

Has India Found a Way Forward?

The rupee fell to a record low against the US dollar combined with a sharp price rise in global commodities such as oil. It has driven trade and current account deficits to worrying levels.

As the bulk of the foreign trade transactions takes place in US dollars it was important for the central government in collaboration with the Reserve Bank of India to come up with a way forward that will turn around the Indian economy for the better.

In alignment with this thought, the RBI issued a circular on the 11th of July 2022 that established a framework allowing Indian companies involved in foreign trade to invoice, pay, and settle their export and import orders in Indian currency in addition to the regular payment modes.

Promoting trade through a rupee account would help the interest of Indian exporters and support a global trading community wanting to do business in INR. The integration of the rupee AC will enable Indian companies to settle their accounts with other countries in INR. In theory, this move could possibly become an alternative to SWIFT.

The idea became more concrete when India wanted to trade with Russia as the US imposed sanctions and denied Russia access to the SWIFT system. Other than simplifying foreign trade with Russia, the system is designed to check the US dollar outflow from the country. This, in turn, would automatically help to slow down the pace of the rupee depreciation against the US dollar to some extent.

How does the Rupee AC Trade System Work?

The proposed Rupee AC trade framework by the RBI enables the settlement of foreign trade transactions with any partner country. To initiate the transactional relationship, Vostro accounts correspondent bank/s of the partner country would have to be opened in banks in India to kick off the trade. Indian importers will then be allowed to make payments for their imports into the country in Indian Rupee directly in these Vostro accounts.

What are the Long-Term Benefits for India?

RBI’s priority in encouraging a shift toward trading via rupee accounts was to minimize foreign trade deficits. This would allow India to raise its proportion of oil purchases from Russia at affordable prices. Moreover, this will establish a more transparent and efficient system of foreign trade and pave the way for the INR to be accepted as a global currency for foreign trade.

India already has new free trade agreements (FTA) with countries like Australia and the United Arab Emirates and is in the negotiating stage to sign more with the likes of the European Union, the UK, and Canada. India can potentially increase their level of economic engagement with FTA partner countries with a pre-existing international settlement mechanism in the Indian Rupee in place.

The Bottomline

India’s proposal of a Rupee AC has already sparked interest in the international community with four to five countries expressing interest in settling foreign trade transactions in Indian rupees. Moreover, a push towards de-dollarizing can promise several long-term structural benefits in India’s international trade going forward.

FAQs

1. Why does RBI want to settle foreign trade payments in INR?

Settling foreign trade payments in INR with help RBI minimize India’s dependency on US dollars to carry out international trade.

2. Is the Indian rupee free floating?

According to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, the Indian rupee is a free-floating currency with its exchange rate determined by prevailing market conditions.

3. Can Indian Rupee be used in foreign trade?

After RBI’s 11th July announcement, Indian Rupee can be used in international trade

Read more:  How Long-term investing helps create life-changing wealth – TOI.

Jogigpoha in Assam has recently been creating headlines in the leading national newspaper. Jogigpoha, a small town on the northern bank of the Brahmaputra River, will be India’s first MultiModal Logistics Park (MMLP) and be part of the “Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit and Transport Project” when linked to Myanmar through Mizoram.

Assam approved the transfer of 200 acres of land owned by the now-defunct Ashok Paper Mill for the project following the Government’s decision. Jogigpoha in the Bongaigaon district is strategically located and has the potential to significantly improve India’s logistics.

The Multimodal Logistics Park project will be carried out in two stages. In the first phase, 102 acres of the park will be outfitted with external roads and rail to connect to inland waterways. The remaining 88 acres for the inland water terminal will be developed in the second phase.

The upcoming project at Johigpoha, Guwahati, is perceived as a game-changer in improving India’s competence and quality in logistic services. According to a report by CII and Arthur D, the cost of transporting freight can account for up to (13-14%) of our GDP. It is nearly double the price of developed economies (7-8%) and significantly higher than other BRIC countries by 9-10%.

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Source: https://www.gktoday.in/

First, let us look at the factors that give Jogigpoha a competitive advantage in becoming a significant logistics and export-import hub.

  • Jogigpoha connects not only the Northeast but also eastern India and countries such as Bhutan, Nepal, and Bangladesh. Products from these countries can be easily imported for further export or transported to other parts of the country.
  • Jogighopa is located 175 km by road from Phuentsholing, a significant trading and transit point on the Indo-Bhutan border.
  • Jogigpoha is 300 km from Kakarbhitta, a massive trading and trans-shipment hub on the Indo-Nepal border.
  • It will be easier to export products from North Bengal’s Dooars and Darjeeling Hills areas, which are well-connected with Jogigpura. In addition, Jogigpura can significantly reduce the burden on the overcrowded Bagdogra Airport in Siliguri.
  • Jogigpura is also close to the Brahmaputra River, our predominant inland waterway connecting Bangladesh. Goods in large volumes from Bhutan, North Bengal, and North East can easily be transported to other destinations.

This flagship project is part of the Government’s “Bharatmala Pariyojna” initiatives, which aim to make Northeast India’s economic powerhouse.

Overview of Multimodal Logistics Park (MMLP)

The National Highways Logistics Management Limited (NHLML) of the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) and the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) are in charge of the Multimodal Logistics Park, which is a Government of India initiative.

In 2017, the Government of India launched this program to build 35 MultiModal Logistics Park/s (MMLP) across the country through Public-Private-Partnerships. The proposed investment in this ambitious project is about Rs. 50,000 Crores. 

Objectives of India’s Multimodal Logistics Park(MMLP)

The intent driving the program was to reduce India’s logistics costs and combat five constraints-

  • aggregation and distribution of freight,
  • freight transportation via multiple modes,
  • storage and warehousing combined,
  • assistance with information technology, and
  • services with added value

How High Costs of Logistics Are Impeding Our Economic Growth

The high cost of freight transportation is putting pressure on manufacturers while significantly reducing their profit margins. Lower profits for an extended period may have an impact on India’s future as a manufacturing hub.

The cost of road transport is whooping high and dominates the price escalations in high-value items such as auto parts, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, hardware, tiles, marbles, sanitary items, furniture, fixtures, steel molded products, and a few more. 

Automobiles accounted for the greatest value in Indian transport equipment exports in the financial year 2022. This amounted to more than 6.8 billion US dollars.

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Source: India: the value of transport equipment exports by type 2022 | Statista

In the financial year 2022, India’s value of exports of railway transport and parts was approximately 416 million US dollars. This was a sizable increase from the previous financial year’s figure of 135.3 million dollars.

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India: the value of railway transport equipment exports 2022 | Statista

Reducing the monopoly of road transport can lead to robust economic growth. We must introduce special parcel trains, modernized cargo booking, delivery outlets, and high-speed freight corridors to give our Indian manufacturing industry a strategic edge.

Challenges in Roadmap to Reduce Logistics Cost

The major bottlenecks to production synergies and lowering logistics and trade costs are higher transportation costs and procedural delays.

  • Overpacked rail networks
  • Ships have a long turnaround time due to overcrowded berths and cargo evacuation delays.
  • Acceptance of technological advances

India’s first MultiModal Logistics Park is proposed to be built on a massive area of over 317 acres at Jogishopa in Assam. Loaded with multiple facilities like a Warehouse, cold storage, yard, petrol pump, parking, lodging, etc, MMLPs aim to reduce the logistics costs by a minimum of 10 %. 

Benefits of Multimodal Logistics Park and Lowering Freight Costs

If we work towards lowering our logistics costs and improving our transport systems, we can gain better access to international markets and increase trade. Mr. Nitin Gadkari, Union Minister of Road Transport and Highways, too emphasized the importance of lowering our current logistics costs by nearly 10% to achieve greater economic viability.

 Some of the appealing advantages are :

  • End-to-end transparency and visibility in the supply chain and logistics cost regulation.
  • Smooth management of storage and distribution of goods in warehouses.
  • Forecast product demand
  • Better inventory management and preventive maintenance.
  • Intelligent route planning to optimize delivery operations.

While addressing the event, “Climate Goals: Technological Roadmap to Net Zero”, he stated that by cutting our logistics costs, we can multiply our savings and boost exports by almost 50%. With technology, innovation, and research we can significantly lower our logistics cost building a fertile ground for manufacturers, entrepreneurs, and innovators at large. 

The Final Thought

MultiModal Logistics Park  (MMLP) lay the foundation to reshape the infrastructure and encompass various logistics segments. It aims to streamline freight traffic, cold chain transportation, and warehousing. The Government intends to use digitalization to expand India’s logistics landscape so that it can compete with its global counterparts.

FAQs

What is the operating model for the project?

The project is built on Hub and Spoke model aimed to integrate freight through highways, railways, and inland waterways.

How is the Multimodal Logistics Park an eco-friendly initiative?

Multimodal Logistics Park will reduce pollution significantly. MMLP has the potential to reduce carbon emissions by 50%. Replacing regular plastic packaging with biodegradable packaging and reducing reliance on railways would help.

When the first Multimodal Logistics Park is set to be functional?

Jogighopa, the first Multimodal Logistics Park could be set up by 2023.

Read more:  How Long-term investing helps create life-changing wealth – TOI

How does a successful technology transfer or manufacturing of high-tech products benefit a nation? To understand, we don’t have to look far beyond, as India is the best example. From manufacturing Covid-19 vaccines for the world to producing long-range air superiority fighters for the Indian Air Force, it has helped India to create an ecosystem of highly skilled workforce and capabilities to pursue new opportunities.

And Airbus Tata collaboration for manufacturing the C-295 transport aircraft is a shot-in-the-arm development. So let’s understand how it will push local manufacturing and benefit the Make in India initiative.

Overview of Airbus Tata Collaboration

In September 2021, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) signed an estimated ₹21,395 crore deal for 56 C-295 transport aircraft with Airbus Inc for the Indian Air Force.

The entire project is unique, and the first-of-a-kind project for India as the military aircraft will be manufactured in India under the transfer of technology by a private sector company. To bag the deal, Airbus, along with its Indian partner, Tata Advanced Systems Ltd (TASL), placed the bid.

Only Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) was known to execute such transactions earlier. And the silver lining is that the production line will meet other countries’ export needs. Making significant progress on the deal, on October 30, 2022, Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid the foundation stone of the manufacturing facility in Vadodara, intending to roll out the first aircraft in September 2026.

Airbus Tata Collaboration- A Case of Make in India

The manufacturing of C-295 in the country is a significant development. It will help India become a global manufacturing hub, support the development of indigenous products and R&D, and allow rapid modernization. For instance, TASL will partner with TCS and more than 125 MSME suppliers to manufacture C 295. The project may generate 600 highly skilled jobs, over 3,000 indirect jobs, and additional 3,000 MSME opportunities generating 4.25 million man-hours of work.

The experience will go a long way in manufacturing high-tech defense products and create a new ecosystem for manufacturing fixed-wing aircraft, the capability which India lags.

For instance, HAL recently completed the deal of manufacturing 140 Sukhoi 30 MKI for the Indian Air Force. Over the year, HAL developed over 2,000 Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprise (MSME) vendor bases for the Sukhoi project that will now be used to ramp up the capacity to overhaul aircraft. Also, the production line can be used in manufacturing India’s next-generation fighter aircraft like the Tejas-MK-1A or building 5th-generation fighter aircraft.

Why is Defense the Focus in Make in India?

The Airbus Tata Collaboration is one more example of how the government is focusing on ramping up defense manufacturing capabilities under the Make in India initiative.

The country must have hi-tech manufacturing capabilities to catch up with the pace of the developed world and new emerging economic scenarios. And large defense orders with offset clauses play a significant role in developing hi-tech industrial capabilities for the country and generating meaningful employment opportunities.

And India wants to be a vital defense manufacturing hub. The government is helping through a five-pronged approach to working on that objective. In the last seven years, India’s defense spending doubled from $32.4 billion in 2015-16 to $62.8 billion in 2021-22. Simultaneously, the government has made 5 crucial policy changes in defense procurement:

New defense acquisition procedure: The Defense Acquisition Procedure (DAP) 2020 formulated rules for procuring new defense technology equipment with a greater focus on the Make in India efforts and MSMEs. Higher usage of indigenous content, design, and development and improving ease of doing business to attract foreign companies to manufacture in India.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Allowing 74% FDI under automatic route will encourage foreign companies to invest and produce in India.

Technology Development Fund: The scheme aims to promote self-reliance in defense technologies and allow more MSMEs and startups in the defense manufacturing space.

Import Embargo: Banning the import of defense equipment that can be manufactured with indigenous technologies and foreign collaboration in India, thus making room for the private sector to invest and add capacities.

Growth in Exports: One of the key focuses of the new Defense Acquisition Procedure is to meet the requirement for India and make for the world. With exports of just under $255 million or  ₹ 1,940 crores in 2014-15, Indian defense exports have touched  ₹13,000 crores mark in 2021-22 fiscal and have already touched  ₹8,000 crores mark in the first six months of FY 2022-23.

With the government planning to make India a defense manufacturing hub for the world and grow the size of the Indian defense manufacturing industry to $5 trillion by 2047 from the current $1 trillion, it paints a bright picture and opportunities for MSMEs, startups, and private and public companies.

The Airbus Tata collaboration is a much-needed development in that direction. As the Prime Minister mentioned at the foundation stone laying ceremony of the C-295 manufacturing facility, India plans to become a significant transport aircraft producer and manufacture big commercial planes.

If things move in the right direction or as planned, the defense sector will also be the biggest wealth creator of the next decade. Stocks of defense companies like Hindustan Aeronautics, Bharat Dynamics, Solar Industries, Bharat Electronics, etc., have given investors higher double-digit CAGR returns in the last three years.

Does this mean that you blindly invest in defense stocks? No, remember FRAI – find, research, analyze and then invest.

Disclaimer Note: The stocks mentioned in this article are just for information. He/she should not consider this a buy/sell/hold from Research & Ranking. The company shall not be liable for any losses that occur.

FAQs

What is Airbus Tata collaboration?

Airbus has partnered with Tata Advanced Systems Ltd. to manufacture C 295 transport aircraft in India. TASL-Airbus signed a ₹ 21,395 crores deal with the Ministry of Defense.

How many C 295 will be manufactured in India?

A total of 40  C 295 transport aircraft will be manufactured for Indian Air Force, and the production line will also be used to meet export requirements.

Where C 295 aircraft will be manufactured in India?

TASL is building a manufacturing plant near Vadodara and has plans to roll out the first aircraft in September 2026.

Read more:  How Long-term investing helps create life-changing wealth – TOI

“India is on a 50-year rally.” Since early 2022, seasoned investor Mark Mobius has placed his hopes in the Indian market. Mobius mentioned this in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Mark Mobius, an investor in emerging markets, told Bloomberg that he is placing significant bets on the Indian market to remedy the declining returns from his Chinese market investments

Bloomberg reports that the Mobius Emerging Markets Fund allocated 45% of its portfolio to India and Taiwan, with primary market holdings in technology hardware and software. In addition, Mobius has a stake in Persistent Systems, an Indian technology firm, which accounted for 4.2% of the fund at the end of July 2022.

Economic Overview

China accounts for 26.89% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, making it the most significant country weight. India accounts for 16.21% of the total. India is now in second place, just behind China.

image 26
Source: MSCI Emerging Market Index

According to Mark Mobius in a conversation with CNBC, the Chinese index is falling as President Xi Jinping secured a third term at the 20th Communist Congress and installed several loyalists on a critical leadership committee. As a result, it will shift more toward a Maoist economy.

This has raised concerns that PM Xi will wield even more power over China’s economy, which has slowed significantly due to lockdown restrictions and his “common prosperity” agenda.

Mark Mobius also noted that China is still recovering from lockdown restrictions, which has led the International Monetary Fund to forecast only a 3.2% increase in the country’s GDP this year. It could cause problems for its markets, especially since the government has withheld vital economic data and delayed other metrics, such as GDP figures. In contrast, India disclosed its GDP growth rate at 8.7% as of FY22.

That’s not a promising sign! But, as Mark Mobius reminded all, that indicates something is boiling beneath the surface of the Chinese market and won’t be good.

“In India, however, the opposite is true. The government is further opening up the market, welcoming foreign investors, and incentivizing people to enter. As a result, we are witnessing a massive change in the world as India and China, the world’s two most populous countries, move into a historical shift towards India.” says Mark Mobius.

Mark Mobius said, “India is possibly where China was a decade ago.” The Indian stock market has recently been on a roll. It will have a positive impact on the Indian Market Index.

Mobius highlighted earnings are closely linked to GDP. Many individual Indian company valuations are still “reasonable” based on forward-looking price-to-earnings and return-on-capital ratios.

Mark believed some Chinese companies would succeed only if they used a selective approach. In the current climate, active management is crucial. He believes investors must not bet on the Chinese index and expect it to succeed; it may not.”

The US-China Technology War Is Heating Up

It is a significant trend occurring for apparent reasons. First, China could face increasing limitations due to the technological competition between the U.S. and China. The COVID lockdown in China is damaging the country’s manufacturers. Therefore, Mobius believes there are many reasons why manufacturers of technological goods will turn their attention to India.

India Can Deal With Its Trade Deficit

Increased local manufacturing in India is needed to address the significant trade deficit with China. India has a demographic advantage over smaller competitors due to its size, making it capable of doing so. And having domestic manufacturing in India is the best way to achieve that. Nations with smaller populations, such as Vietnam, Thailand, and other smaller countries, may find it challenging to increase local manufacturing.

Still, with a billion people, competitive wages, and a young population, India can boost manufacturing and significantly reduce Chinese imports. He believes that because the supply chain still requires imports from China and other countries, the Indian government must not consider accomplishing its goals through input restrictions like higher import taxes.

What the Indian government should do is encourage local manufacturers so that many of the products now imported from China can be manufactured in India at a lower cost.

The long-term strategy for manufacturing companies should be to relocate to India.

Given that it costs a lot of money to establish manufacturing facilities in a nation, Mobius predicted that this manufacturing shift to India would likely last for a long time. But he added that it would mean businesses assume the environment for investments would remain favorable for the long term. Moreover, India’s infrastructure is good, and the government has friendly regulations; manufacturing will stay once it relocates to India.

Additionally, given that foreign investors have continued to pull their money out of Chinese markets, the investor anticipates that India will likely overtake China in manufacturing stocks.

Indian aspirations to become a global hub are being fueled by the booming manufacturing sector.

According to the FICCI Quarterly Manufacturing Survey findings, the manufacturing sector’s recent rapid expansion is expected to continue for 6 to 9 months. In addition, manufacturing currently has an average capacity utilization of 72%, which indicates sustained economic activity in the industry.

image 27
Source: IBEF Report Manufacturing Infographics August 2022

According to IBEF reports, India can develop into a central manufacturing hub and by 2030 it could contribute more than US$ 500 billion annually to the world economy. According to preliminary estimates of the gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2021–2022, India’s GDP, expressed in current prices, was Rs. 51.23 lakh crore (US$ 694.93 billion) in the first quarter of FY22.

The third quarter of FY22 saw an estimated manufacturing Gross Value Added at current prices of US$ 77.47 billion, according to an IBEF report. In June 2022, the production of coal increased by 31.1%, that of electricity by 15.5%, goods from refineries by 15.1%, fertilizers by 8.2%, cement by 19.4%, and natural gas by 1.2%. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Manufacturing in India was 53.9 in June 2022.

The Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) was established with an allocation of Rs. 1.97 lakh crore (US$ 27.02 billion) over the following five years to create global manufacturing champions in 13 sectors beginning FY22.

India’s Government Is Acting Quickly

The progress is patchy because of the federal nature of the country’s political system. Still, Mobius felt the center was moving quickly to increase the ease of business in India. For instance, he suggested speeding up the paperwork so that licenses could be granted more quickly.

The speeding up of processes depends on each state in India. A few state governments in India have done a great job attracting investors. Mobius emphasized that India must prioritize manufacturing from a broad policy perspective even as its services sector experiences robust growth.

As noted in IBEF reports, India’s manufacturing sector has the potential to reach $1 trillion by 2025. Implementing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) has turned India into a common market with a GDP of US$ 2.5 trillion and a population of 1.32 billion, which is enticing investors. In addition, the government has plans to focus on developing industrial corridors and smart cities to ensure the nation’s holistic development.

Indian Governments Initiatives to boost manufacturing industry

Mr. Narendra Modi, the PM of India, launched his “Make in India” campaign not long after taking office in 2014 to make India a global manufacturing center. The campaign aims to ensure the manufacturing sector accounts for 25% of the economy, up from 15% in 2014.

image 28
Source: IBEF Report Manufacturing Infographics August 2022
The manufacturing sector has received significant investment

India received a total inflow of US$ 58.77 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) in FY2021-2022, according to the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT). For almost two decades, the major industries which received FDI equity inflow are the automobile industry at 32.8%, the chemical industry at 19.5%, and pharma at 19.4%.

image 29
Source: IBEF Report Manufacturing Infographics August 2022

The National Manufacturing Policy wants manufacturing to account for 25% of the GDP by 2025. The Union Budget 2022–23 set aside Rs. 2,403 crores (about U.S. $315 million) to promote the production of electronics and IT hardware. The Production-Linked Incentives (PLI) for semiconductor manufacturing are set at Rs. 760 billion (US$ 9.71 billion) to make India one of the world’s major producers of this essential component.

Final Words

Investors should exercise caution when investing Chinese market, Mark Mobius advised. The Indian government has recognized the manufacturing industry’s potential growth and provided incentives and support to change the manufacturing industry.

At the same time, he highlights India’s potential to revolutionize hardware technology and provides a bullish perspective on the Indian market. Remember that due diligence before investing is crucial if you want to invest in China or India. So, thoroughly study the market, the company, its moats, challenges, and future prospects before investing. Long-term investments can help you create wealth.

FAQs

What is the historical gap between the Indian and Chinese Markets?

The $5 trillion collapse in the Chinese market widens the historical gap between Indian stock markets.

Which company relocated its manufacturing facility from China to India earlier in 2022?

Apple Inc. began shifting production from China to India after a flawless production rollout.

Read more:  How Long-term investing helps create life-changing wealth – TOI.

The China Plus One strategy became a hot topic of discussion once again as the Covid-19 pandemic engulfed the globe. The reason for this was a massive shift in the role of China’s manufacturing industry in the global export value chain.

With supply chain diversification at this level, it can be an excellent opportunity for Indian players to recapture a significant chunk of the international pie.

Let us first dive into what triggered this change in the Chinese manufacturing sector, thus adding fuel to the China Plus One strategy.

Why Are Companies Leaving China?

The most important reason that is driving the companies away from China is the implementation of the Personal Information Protection Law that came into effect in November 2021

For companies that do business with China, this legislation increases compliance costs while creating an environment of uncertainty. Furthermore, those flouting it will be liable to penalties for up to US$7.8 million, or 5% of their annual revenue.

Chinese regulators are cracking down on these technology giants, driving them towards considering the China Plus One strategy.

What is China Plus One Strategy?

Businesses from the western world have always found the low production and labor costs very attractive in mainland China. Along with affordable manufacturing came access to a large domestic consumer market. These were the primary reasons that have driven companies to invest in China for the last two decades.

image 16

The adverse impact of this voluminous demand has increased operational costs for manufacturers in China. The benefit of low prices and consumer demand no longer existed compared to what countries in the ASEAN region could offer these companies.

The China Plus One strategy, on the other hand, is a business strategy that deters companies from investing in China. The goal here is to diversify the supply chain across different, more favorable manufacturing geographies around the globe.

Companies looking to diversify are looking for stability – a stable economy, a stable government, and consistent consumer demand that countries like India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Bangladesh have to offer.

image 17
Data is generated from the China Business Report issued by the
American Chamber of Commerce Shanghai

Needless to say, the China Plus One strategy comes with its own challenges. Corporations will be subject to navigating new laws, new markets, and streamlining the business over multiple locations. However, the advent of Covid-19 and the China-US trade war expedited the rise of the China Plus One strategy over the last two years.

How Can India Benefit from the China Plus One Strategy?

Companies globally are looking to de-risk their supply chain. Therefore, the China Plus One strategy can open many doors for Indian manufacturers, primarily in the auto and auto components, engineering-related products, and chemical sectors.

India offers the cost advantage and benefits from a lower-cost sourcing point which global companies will not be able to overlook altogether.

The way for India to capitalize on the China Plus One strategy is to learn what China did right and do it better. This includes focusing on low operational costs, maintaining quality standards, timely delivery, and establishing reliability as a global manufacturing partner.

Indian companies looking to increase their footprint in the global supply chain will have to relook at their models of capacity utilization. The idea is to bifurcate resources where domestic demand should not be combined with meeting international needs. Both are different business opportunities and must be treated accordingly.

Going forward, this will allow Indian companies to scale and invest in exclusive capacity to give their customers confidence by manufacturing in volumes enabling them to gain credibility in the international supply chain ecosystem.

The government of India is also supporting the China Plus One strategy by improving the ease of doing business. This has incentivized new undertakings with lower tax liabilities for companies.

What Opportunities Have Emerged for India?

With the China Plus One strategy already playing out, India has benefited somewhat from this opportunity. Experts believe that within the manufacturing sector, any area that offers scale can be an opportunity for India.

For instance, China has always been the dominant leader globally across several industries, such as home textiles and cotton apparel. However, with the shift in production strategy and inadequate supply of cotton year, Chinese manufacturers are concentrating more on man-made fibers. This led to a rise in demand from Indian players, which could lead to an additional CAPEX of Rs 120 billion in the next decade for India.

Another opportunity emerged when Chinese majors began to shift from APIs toward formulations. However, this impeded Indian companies, especially during COVID times, as India could replace imported players with the government’s encouraging gestures.

Footwear is another industry that has gained as most South Asian and Chinese competitors lost traction because of low-value addition and wage pressures.

Looking Forward

Despite the challenges, India is an attractive option for companies adopting the China Plus One strategy. Strategic location, a large domestic market, skilled labor, and low labor costs are key factors that will help corporations decide where to take their business.

FAQs

Why did western companies start pulling out of China?

China has made a strategic shift from the production of low-value goods to high-value goods. This triggered global technology companies to either downsize their operations or completely pull out from mainland China.

Why did the China Plus One strategy find renewed vigor among corporations?

China’s strict data privacy law outlined that companies would be legally bound to abide by the data collection and storage terms, thus limiting control over sensitive information that is incremental to business success.

How has the government encouraged international companies to bring their business to India?

Bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements have been signed or are in the negotiating stage by the central government with 40+ countries. This will enable companies from these geographies to avoid the high-tariff trade barrier set up in India when doing business. This is encouraging more global companies to consider India as an alternative to China.

Read more:  How Long-term investing helps create life-changing wealth – TOI.

In the expedition to the digitalization of money, RBI recently rocket-launched its first pilot project of wholesale CBDC on November 1. However, the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) or eRupee is merely another form of sovereign paper currency and is not intended to be a replacement.

According to RBI, the rapid mushrooming of cryptocurrencies pose a potential threat to the country’s financial ecosystem. Therefore, the essential motivation driving RBI’s CBDC is to maintain the continuum with the digital revolution while hedging against credit and liquidity risks.

India has come a long way, from commodities to precious metals to paper currency to the recently launched digital currency. Accordingly, RBI has launched the eRupee in phases via multiple pilot projects. When put to viability tests, RBI envisages detecting privacy issues and its implication on banking systems and financial stability.

Do you want to know how CBDC will affect the country’s financial landscape? Or will the digital Rupee mark the end of the cryptocurrency era in India? Are you wondering how safe and secure this new legal tender is? If yes, you have landed at the best place to find answers to all your questions related to the central bank digital currency.

Overview of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)

CBDC or eRupee has been introduced by RBI as a digital form, the same as sovereign currency exchangeable at par (1:1) with fiat currency. The primary consideration of RBI is to create a digital rupee closest to its physical form and make the execution process seamless. In the pilot project, wholesale CBDC will cover only secondary market transactions in government securities. The digital retail currency will also be introduced later based on the merits and transactional benefits. 

The RBI has currently identified nine banks for the pilot launch- State Bank of India (SBI), Bank of Baroda (BOB), the Union Bank of India (UBI), HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Yes Bank, IDFC First Bank, and HSBC.

The key intent is to.

  • Make interbank transactions more efficient.
  • Make transactions safe, smooth, cheap, and interoperable within and across the country.
  • Ensure monetary and financial integrity.
  • Provide a risk-free platform to deal in virtual currencies.

Features of CBDC

  • It is a sovereign currency Central Banks issue based on their monetary policy.
  • The eRupee will appear as a liability on the central bank’s balance sheet
  • It will be accepted as a medium of payment, legal tender, and a safe store of value by all citizens, enterprises, and government agencies.
  • Freely convertible against commercial bank money and cash
  • Fungible legal tender for which holders need not have a bank account
  • Expected to lower the cost of issuance of money and transactions

Types of Central Bank Digital Currencies

Based on the use case, digital currency can be broadly categorized into- Wholesale (CBDC-W) and Retail (CBDC-R). CBDC-W is designed for the settlement of interbank and related wholesale transactions.  While CBDC-R, the digitalized form of physical cash is intended to make retail financial transactions more safe and efficient.

Forms of Central Bank Digital Currencies

RBI will float its digital currency in form of- token-based, account-based, or a combination of both. A token-based CBDC system is similar to a “bearer-instrument”, where the holder of the instrument at a given time is considered the owner. In an account-based CBDC system, you would require the records of balances and financial transactions of all the holders to establish ownership.

The digital currency for wholesale will be issued through an account-based system, allowing instant transfer and incorporating a well-understood and established legal system. Whereas retail digital currency will be issued through a token-based system as it ensures universal access and robust security.

CBDC
Source: rbidocs.rbi.org.in

Benefits of Issuing Central Bank Digital Currencies

According to the latest reports, 105 countries that constitute almost 95% of the World’s GDP are in the pilot stage of launching their own CBDC framework. The most recent launch is JAM-DEX, Jamaica’s digital currency which created a global buzz. Then, Sand Dollar (Bahamas) is proclaimed the most developed retail digital currency worldwide.

image 3
Source: https://www.cbdc.cc

Let us try to understand the intrinsic values and benefits that are driving digital currency’s global acceptance. Though CBDC is in its early stages of research and development in India, we can anticipate a few advantages:

  • Adopting digital reforms reduces reliance on cash.
  • Reduced Currency management cost like the cost of printing, storing, transporting, and replacing bank notes.
  • The e-Rupee system will boost India’s digital economy, augmenting financial inclusion and making monetary and payment systems more efficient.
  • Convenient for Businesses and the Public.
  • E-Rupee settlements are final thereby lowering settlement risks.
  • The ease of use gives space for innovative products and services.
  • More regulated, dependable legal tender, and real-time cross-border payments.
  • Using Central Bank’s digital currency in offline mode as well will help cover the unbanked and deprived sections of our society.

What are the Challenges of Central Bank Digital Currency?

In the roadmap to launch a successfully functioning CBDC-W and CBDC-R, there is plenty that must be done. A few challenges the RBI faces include-

  • Need for a strong data protection policy to prevent exploitation of any vulnerabilities in the infrastructure.
  • Incorporate universality, finality, and anonymity in the same way that physical currency does. Dealing with this is difficult because all digital transactions leave a trail.
  • Application user interfaces (APIs) should be used effectively to allow for the quickest recovery in the event of a system breach.
  • Enhancing technical infrastructure to foster the recall feature that helps the system to release new security features if a series of tokens get hacked.
  • Maintaining privacy and combat technology risks and other prevalent threats.
  • Making a high-standard Business Continuity Plan.

Key Takeaways

We have demonstrated our appetite for digitalization and rapid acceptance of digital modes over time. COVID-19 has prompted the need to accelerate the payment digitalization process and find a substitute for the most preferred mode of transactions i.e. Cash. CBDC has revolutionized the payment landscape via ease of use coupled with a sovereign guarantee. Similar to the fiat currency, CBDC appears on the liability side of the Central Bank’s balance sheet.

CBDC Chart

With the RBI’s CBDC digital footprints, you can envision a more secure financial environment, mitigate cross-border and cross-currency risks, and reach out to the unbanked and financially disadvantaged segments of society. Another reason for introducing digital currency is to safeguard the public from the alarming volatility of virtual currencies. CBDC’s interactive technology design and expected benefits make it as appealing as physical cash, if not more so.

FAQs

Will the Digital Rupee be built on blockchain technology?

Yes, the digital rupee is built on blockchain and other technologies to ensure a smooth and efficient cash management system.

Will the Digital Rupee increase lending?

Yes, the CBDC is expected to increase lending in the economy.  The outflow of the digital rupee creates competition among banks to bring in more deposits and increase retail and MSME lending.

Will the Digital Rupee eventually supplant physical currency?

No, the digital rupee has been introduced to supplement instead of replace the physical currency. It is introduced to strengthen digital initiatives and enhance security and payment systems.

What is the difference between CBDC and Digital Assets?

Digital assets are decentralized and not controlled by anybody whereas CBDC is governed by the Central Bank, RBI.

Digital assets are highly volatile and have yet to gain global acceptance, whereas CBDC is much more stable and is also gaining universal recognition.

India’s life insurance sector is witnessing a structural change, and the pandemic at the start of the decade has hastened the process. Greater risk awareness among the general population and accelerated digitization of the user journey process- from comparing policies and buying to claim filings are some positive structural developments in the insurance sector in India.

According to a global reinsurer Swiss Re, the Indian life insurance industry is set to grow at an exceptional rate of 6.6% in 2022. And the premium collection is expected to cross the $100 billion mark for the first time, whereas the global life insurance premium growth is muted and expected to increase by 1.9% in 2023. 

According to a KPMG report, the Indian insurance sector is expected to grow at around 15% annually for the next three to five years.

So, do life insurance stocks make a case for becoming the next multibaggers in the Indian stock market or just a fad that should be ignored at all costs?

The factors that will be discussed in this blog article will help you come to a decision.

Life Insurance Sector in India: Industry Overview

India’s insurance sector is divided into life and non-life insurance, with 57 companies operating in the industry and 24 in the life insurance vertical. Of the 24 companies, LIC has the highest market share at 68.57% until July 2022, and HDFC Life comes a distant second with 18.4% in new business received premium.

The life insurance sector in India is growing at a rapid pace at 32-34% annually and is the fifth largest life insurance market in the emerging insurance economies globally. Some of the key highlights of the sector are:

  • The life insurance to GDP ratio, an important metric to measure insurance penetration in the country, has grown to 3.2% in December 2021, up from 2.8% the previous year.
  • Life insurers collected ₹3.10 lakh crore as premiums in FY22, up from ₹2.7 lakh crore in FY21. By FY31, the premiums from India’s life insurance industry are expected to reach ₹24 lakh crore ($318 billion).
  • India is Asia’s second-largest insurance tech market, witnessing almost 35% of the $3.66 billion insurance-focused venture capital funding. In addition, the online market is estimated to be $1.25 billion by FY25, more than three times $365 million in FY20.
  • During FY 2020-21, 28 million new life insurance policies were sold in India, with group non-single policies registering a healthy growth of 6.3%.

The Macro Growth Drivers

The following are the factors that could lead to the expansion of the user base in the Indian life insurance sector:

Demographic Advantage: India has the world’s largest youth and adolescent population and will continue to rise till 2030, according to UNFPA. In terms of life insurance market potential, there is an enormous untapped market as the cohort will continue to push growth until 2050.

Aspiring Middle Class: As per a World Economic Forum (WEF) report published in 2019, India will transform itself from an economy led by the bottom of the pyramid to one led by the middle-class segment. Nearly 80% of the growth contribution will come from the middle class, from the present 50%. The middle-class and upper-middle-class segment is expected to expand by 34% and 44% by 2030, with a significant reduction in the low-income segment.

Rising GDP per capita income: In March 2022, India’s GDP per capita income reached $2,231 compared to $1,968 the previous year and is expected to be around $5,700 by 2030.

High Mortality Protection Gap: It refers to differences in actual life cover taken against the required cover to ensure complete protection. India has the highest mortality protection gap in the Asia Pacific at 92%, meaning only ₹8 is in place in the form of savings and insurance for every ₹100. This offers life insurers a vast untapped market for excellent opportunities over the next 10 to 30 years.

The Micro Growth Drivers

The micro-growth drivers refer to the changes the insurance companies brought in response to the changing demand while entering a highly untapped market.

Customer Centricity: The simplification of the user journey process, from considering and buying to filing the claims. Leveraging technology, omnichannel presence, simplification of product construct, and user experience are helping to increase penetration and provide a superior customer experience.

Sachet product and customization: Every individual has different needs, and no one product fits all. Innovations like add-on covers that give additional policy coverage by paying a little extra premium over the base cover help customize the policy coverage according to one’s need. For example, taking critical illness add-on coverage with the base term life insurance helps to expand the policy’s scope and increase protection with a small extra premium amount.

Innovation and Use of Digital Channels: Mis-selling was rampant in the Indian life insurance sector before the digitization and online availability of insurance products. Steps like investment in creating knowledge resources by private life insurers to improve awareness and reducing the premium cost by selling insurance products directly have helped to clock growth in premium revenue. For instance, HDFC Life recorded 87% renewals based on premiums and 96% renewals based on the number of policies originating from digital channels collected online.

Big Data: One of the critical enablers in driving growth in the insurance sector in recent times is the use of big data to design products that suit dynamic users’ needs, smoothen customer acquisition, renewals and claim management process, and fraud management.

Indian Life Insurance Players

The Life Insurance sector in India is dominated by a recently listed, state-backed life insurance major LIC. However, private life insurers are steadily improving their market share through better customer outreach strategy, omnichannel presence, superior product construct, etc.

The major private life insurance players listed on the Indian stock market include HDFC Life, ICICI Pru Life, SBI Life, and Max India. At the end of September 2022, the market share of private life insurers was at 31.75%, while LIC held the remaining.

Conclusion

Although a vast untapped business potential exists for Indian life insurers, challenges remain. Risks like the Covid-19 pandemic have hurt the financials of life insurance companies. In addition, higher death claims and reduced new business growth in FY21 resulted in reduced profitability and underperformance of stocks by a large margin against the broader market.

However, the pandemic blip in life insurance stocks is not something big to worry about as it is an ordinary course of the business and will push for higher subscriptions to life and health insurance policies.

In the next few years, big things to watch out for are the reforms pushed by the government in the life insurance sector and how private life insurance players improve their market share. Synergies between the government and private insurance players can bring new possibilities for the industries and, possibly, wealth creation for insurance stockholders. 

FAQs

What is the size of the Indian life insurance market?

India is the fifth-largest life insurance market with a 3.2% life insurance penetration, ahead of China (at
2.4%.

Which life insurance stocks are available in India?

Life insurance stocks in India include Life Insurance Corporation, HDFC Life Insurance, SBI Life
Insurance, and ICICI Prudential Life Insurance.

What is the market share of LIC in the life insurance sector in India?

LIC has the highest market share at 68.57% until July 2022 and HDFC Life comes a distant second with 18.4% in new business received premium.


According to financial analysts, a record Rs 4 trillion left the equities market as the Foreign Institutional Investors in India (FIIs) exited the market. Per NSDL data the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) in India sold Indian equities worth Rs 214217 crore in Indian markets from the beginning of FY2021-22 till June 10, 2022. 

This persistent selling of equities by Foreign Institutional Investors in India (FIIs) drove the equities market to its lowest in over a decade. However, the trend over the past couple of months seems to be reversing. With more buying versus selling, the return of FII in India looks imminent. 

Before we try to understand this reversing trend, let’s look at some of the key reasons that drove the FII out of the equity markets in India.

The Shift in the Sentiment of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) in India for the Equities Market

It is essential to understand what changed for the FII in India that led them to offload such enormous amounts of holdings in 15 months. Analysts believe several factors contributed to this paradigm change in sentiment of the FIIs in India

  • Central banks around the world tightened liquidity following Fed rate hikes making the dollar stronger.
  • Inflation had hit the roof globally.
  • The conflict between Russia and Ukraine resulted in a record price rise in crude oil worldwide.

The central banks purchased bonds from commercial banks and financial institutions to curb inflation and pump more money into the system. It also helped to keep the interest rates under check. However, this was not a permanent solution, and buying bonds to minimize liquidity in the financial system was not a viable long-term option for central banks.

It made the FIIs withdraw their investments from emerging markets like India and take their funds to more financially stable destinations such as Indonesia and Brazil. 

Reasons for the Return of the Foreign Institutional Investors in India

The aggressive selling by the FIIs in India saw a dip after a consistent selling spree. As recently as August 2022, FIIs pumped investments worth Rs 16,175 crores into Indian equities. 

The FIIs in India are currently cherry-picking stocks and taking advantage of high-value stocks in the Indian equities market that is in a price correction mode. It confirms that Foreign Institutional Investors are back with renewed interest in the equities market in India. 

Let’s look at the reasons for what triggered this U-turn.

1. Expectations in Rate Hikes:

Central banks globally are expected to slow down on interest rate hikes. According to a poll, Reuters conducted in July 2022, economists who expected a 100-bps rate hike by the US Fed are predicting a hike of 75 bps. The European Central Bank initiated a rise of 50 basis points, double what the economists had expected. 

The central bank moves worldwide, and a weakening dollar considerably lowered the risk sentiments of Foreign Institutional Investors in India in the equities market. Hence, the FIIs sitting on a pile of cash started seeking new investment opportunities in the Indian equities market.  

2. Resilient Earnings Outlook:

Market gurus predict that the consensus net debt/EBITDA for BSE500 may experience a fall to 1.1x for the FY23E as opposed to the range of 3.0-3.5x recorded in the three years in the pre-Covid era. The banking system has also decreased below 6% due to non-performing assets. 

Therefore, compared to major Asian economies, specifically China, a country still experiencing structural problems, the outlook on earnings for Indian corporate seems not only resilient but also promises future growth for FIIs in India. 

3. Attractive Valuation:

A price correction in Indian equities may also be why Foreign Institutional Investors in India are back with their investments in the equities market. Compared to its long-term average of 21x, over the remaining months of the financial year 2022-23, Nifty’s expected earnings via trade will continue to be at its current 18x. 

Given the market dynamics, the FIIs possibly did not wish to lose complete exposure to the Indian stock market, given that the global economy is still recovering from rising inflation. 

4. Macro Factors:

The Reserve Bank of India and the central government have managed to limit the skyrocketing inflation rate to below 8%. According to RBI projections, the inflation rate may decrease to below 6% by March 2023.

Credit growth has witnessed a recent uptick, and the collections from GST have also picked up a steady pace. As a result, credit card spending in India is at an all-time high. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) recently touched a record 8-month high, and the real estate industry is also gathering consistent momentum after several months of low to moderate growth.

All of these macro factors instill trust and confidence of FIIs in India in the equities market and, by extension, the Indian economy. 

Click here to get your personalized a portfolio of 20-25 potential multibagger stocks for 2022.

FII Buying is Important for India

Foreign Institutional Investor in India continues to play a critical role in sustaining the Indian economy and acting as a market performance catalyst. The overall inflow of the Indian economy is still under the heavy influence of Foreign Institutional Investor as they invest a significant amount of money in securities such as banks, mutual funds, and more that drive the Indian equities market

Read more: About Research and Ranking

The world is on the cusp of a significant climate shift because of ignorance and inaction towards our environment. While climate treaties such as the UN Climate Convention have been in place for decades, there is a need to take more concrete action to contain the impact of climate change

The solution for countries and governments worldwide is to work towards a net zero carbon goal

What is a Net Zero Carbon Goal? 

Everyone knows what are net carbon emissions and their impact on the planet’s environmental landscape. 

Net zero refers to emissions balanced by equivalent net carbon emissions from the atmosphere. The world must achieve the net zero carbon goal by 2050 to reach the 1.5°Centrigrade global warming target set in the Paris Agreement.

It has always been the developed nations of the world that have taken the lead in committing to the net zero carbon goal. However, the United Kingdom, France, Norway, Sweden, and Denmark have been the first few countries that have already enshrined their net zero carbon goal in their national law. 

However, India’s announcement to commit to a net zero carbon goal at the COP26 climate change conference by Prime Minister Narendra Modi did take the world by surprise. 

What are the 5 Challenges to Making India’s Net Zero Carbon Goal a Reality? 

Despite India’s COP26 promises at the conference, achieving the net zero carbon goal by 2070 can be challenging. 

Let’s examine the five key challenges deter India from achieving its COP26 promises

1. Create a Decarbonization Plan that is Actionable and Affordable

India’s journey to achieving the net zero carbon goal in less than 50 years needs the support of a well-thought-out and detailed decarbonization roadmap. The plan will map the overall journey and incorporate macro and micro milestones with clear strategies to achieve them through a blueprint of concrete action points. 

The document must also capture the sequence of rolling out the decarbonization levers and business models. How organizations and enterprises across the country will integrate their strategies to minimize carbon footprint will play a supporting role in India’s carbon-free journey. 

Additionally, the decarbonization roadmap should include ways to accelerate or even change course given the rapidly transforming regulatory and technological landscape, along with a detailed cost structure aligned with the plan. 

2. Driving Businesses to Adopt and Integrate Carbon Targets into Corporate Governance

Though Prime Minister Modi may have pledged to reach the net zero carbon goal on India’s behalf, it is the corporate that must come forward to drive this mission forward. To initiate the process, the carbon KPIs that will support decarbonization at scale should be integrated into the business enterprises’ corporate governance structure and decision-making mechanisms. 

The financial and strategic merits of decarbonization should be charted out clearly to overcome the adoption challenge. Moreover, the incentives, objectives, and goals must align with the plan’s carbon impact and performance. 

3. Share Relevant Carbon Data with All Involved Stakeholders

Almost 50% of business leaders in India confirmed not using emissions data to make business decisions due to a lack of easy accessibility to the information or confidence in the source of the data. 

The net zero carbon goal may become possible when all stakeholders involved in the mission have access to accurate data insights on net carbon emissions in a transparent and streamlined manner. In addition, emission data will help drive informed decision-making at the corporate level. 

4. Drive Affordability by Leveraging Green Finance Solutions

Many companies have reported a lack of sustainable financing frameworks, for example, green loans and green bonds, which can be a way forward in terms of allocating the necessary capital for decarbonization projects at the corporate level. 

The government of India, in collaboration with banks and NBFCs, can help to establish several green financing and regulatory support mechanisms that, in turn, will be a critical driver that will play an essential role in helping India’s COP26 promises. Moreover, it will initiate the change process and minimize costs for companies that commit to decarbonization action. 

5. Lack of Co-ordination on Decarbonization and Mobilizing the Organization for Delivery

For India’s net zero carbon goal to become a reality, corporates must collaborate with local bodies, governments, and relevant authorities. Currently, there is a massive bottleneck in this space where stakeholders act in isolation rather than taking cohesive measures that can lead to better outcomes. 

Moreover, decarbonization is not the responsibility of corporates alone. The country must be conscious and aware, and the government must take necessary action to mobilize delivery across all population segments. 

Final Thoughts

Experts believe that the net zero carbon goal the Indian government committed to is not an impossible task to achieve by 2070. Moreover, when you look at it in combination with other targets the Modi government set, the plan fits in entirely with the long-term goals. 

The path to transformation will not happen overnight and will require decades of strategic planning and implementation at various levels. The COP26 promises will inspire the industry to invest in technologies to support decarbonization. India’s per capita income could increase by 2070, creating the necessary fiscal space for this transition to play out smoothly. 

Read more: About Research and Ranking

The global economy is going through a very rough patch. With inflation in both developed and developing economies reaching decadal highs, an impending energy crisis due to the standoff between the West and Russia, and a food crisis has derailed GDP growth globally. 

And, if that is not enough, central banks worldwide have opted for aggressive interest rate hikes to rein in inflation. However, compared to any other economy, the aggressive Fed rate hikes and its hawkish stance may prove to be a significant cause of worry for the market. 

This blog will help you to understand the impact of the Fed’s Powell policy on your portfolio and the overall market. 

Jackson Hole Event

Against rising inflation, the Fed’s Powell policy delivered four rate hikes in 2022 so far, including the big hikes of 0.75% in June and July. However, the rate hikes were on the expected line, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent speech at the Jackson Hole event, the Federal Reserve’s three-day annual conference, has surprised investors. 

At the three-day conference, he said that Fed’s primary focus would be to bring down inflation to within the 2% target, and they will continue to have a hawkish stance, prioritizing lowering inflation and increasing interest rates despite its effect on economic growth. 

The US Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates by 150bps in 2022 and may raise another 200bps during the rest of the year. Cumulatively, that turns out to be a hike of 350bps, making it one of the most aggressive rate hike cycles, according to an Acuite Ratings report. 

The Dollar Index

The US Dollar has been the world’s reserve currency for almost 60 years. As a result, most financial transactions, international debt, and global trade are dollar-denominated, and nearly 60% of the world’s reserves are in dollars. 

So, when the Fed raises interest rates, it encourages people and financial institutions to save more and move their money parked in risk-on assets to risk-off assets. It sucks out the liquidity from the system, reducing the circulation of dollars in the market. It helps the dollar strengthen against other currencies. 

The US Dollar Index measures the strength of the USD against the basket of six foreign currencies, viz., Euro, Pound, Swiss Franc, Yen, Canadian Dollar, and Swedish Krona, which have appreciated by almost 15% since Feb 2022. 

How Fed’s Powell Policy will Impact Your Portfolio?

Rate hikes by the Fed and the strong dollar are a dual hit for any economy. The following are the ways how Fed’s Powell Policy impacts your portfolio. 

Weaker Rupee

In India, the rupee has depreciated by almost 7.3% against the US dollar in 2022; further Fed rate hikes will worsen the situation. However, despite depreciating against the US dollar, it appreciated against other currencies like the euro, GBP, and the yen. 

While the falling rupee is good news for exporters as they can get substantial value for their goods and services, it’s the opposite for importers. India is known to have a negative trade balance, meaning imports are higher than exports, which adds pressure to the country’s foreign reserve. As a result, India’s forex reserve fell by $89 billion in the ten months to $553 billion as of September 2022. 

Higher Inflation

While a strong dollar helps the US fight inflation more effectively, it creates inflationary pressure for other economies. A weaker rupee has significantly increased the input costs resulting in inflationary pressure on the economy. Higher input costs always impact the company’s bottom lines and capital expenditure plans, resulting in the stock’s underperformance. 

High Cost of Credit

The Reserve Bank of India must resort to increasing the repo rate to tame the inflationary pressure, which increases the cost of borrowing in the country, impacting the value creation process.

 In 2022, RBI has hiked the repo rate by 90 basis points, and if inflation persists, it may raise the rates further in the next monetary policy meet. The increased cost of borrowing will drive down consumption, impacting growth stocks as they rely heavily on both capital and steady consumption.

The Outflow of Foreign Institutional Investors

The Powell policy Fed rate hikes make the US treasury yields more attractive for investors. They motivate foreign institutional investors to shift their money from emerging economies to invest more in debt instruments in the US market. And the returns from investing in the US treasury are entirely risk-free, making it the best investment alternative in these volatile and uncertain market conditions. 

Primarily, selling by foreign institutional investors results in share market corrections and crashes. Such corrections can create panic and fear among domestic investors, who may sell, impacting their portfolio profoundly. 

Impending Liquidity Crisis

A stock market requires sustained liquidity to grow and create value for investors. It was evident during the period between 2020 and 2021 when central banks worldwide opted for an ultra-beneficial monetary policy to reduce the impact of the pandemic. As a result, nifty 50 and BSE Sensex recorded more than 100% increase in value during the period. 

NIFTY 2022 09 16 19 16 37 1

In the chart above comparing the movement of the Nifty 50 and Dollar Index, there are two zones marked in green and red. In the green zone between 2020 and 2022, a soft dollar index helped the Nifty 50 move higher due to a better liquidity position in the market. But, from the period starting 2022, a rise in the Dollar Index due to the Powell policy resulted in higher volatility and the Nifty 50 struggling to break higher. 

But Fed’s Powell policy with aggressive and long rate hike cycles may trigger liquidity crises, high volatility, and a fall in the price of stocks. Moreover, an extended period of tighter monetary policy may spook investors and shift their money towards low-risk options to save capital. 

Conclusion

So, the big question is, what should you do? Trim down your positions, stop investing, or continue buying the dip? 

The answer to this question is simple, stick to your investment objectives and strategies. If you are a long-term investor, such short-term volatility should not matter to you. Furthermore, the Fed rate hikes don’t happen overnight. Instead, they discuss and debate these policies publicly weeks in advance. So, you get ample time to plan and manage your investments

‘Moody’s retains India’s Sovereign Rating;’ is a headline that greeted us this week. This is despite other agencies slashing their ratings.

What does this rating mean? Will the Baa3 rating impact India’s economic growth and should you know more about these ratings? The answer is a simple Yes.

Moody’s outlook rating reflects India’s economic environment and the reforms that have contributed to India’s growth and financial stability. Let us look at why Moody’s retained India’s Sovereign rating though it slashed India’s growth forecast to 7.7% last week.

What do Moody’s ratings measure?

Moody’s Investor Service rates fixed-income debt securities and assigns ratings based on the borrower’s creditworthiness via a standardized rating scale. This scale measures expected investor loss in case of a default. It also measures long-term foreign currency deposits, issuer, and senior unsecured debt ratings, and the bank’s baseline credit.

Investors often look at Moody’s, Fitch’s, or CRISIL’s ratings to gauge the risks associated with stock investment, bonds, and government securities.

History of India’s Sovereign Ratings

Moody’s had downgraded India’s sovereign rating from Baa2 to Baa3, with a negative outlook in November 2019. But after India’s economic growth and sustained bull run post-May 2020 Moody’s changed India’s rating from negative to stable in October 2021, two years after its downgrade in 2019. This year it has retained India’s Sovereign rating and EXIM’s long-term ratings to Baa3 with a stable outlook.

It has also upgraded EXIM Bank’s baseline credit assessment (BCA) and adjusted BCA from ba3 to ba2, which reflects an improvement in the bank’s standalone capital credit strength.

In June 2022, Fitch Ratings revised its outlook for India’s long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘stable’ from ‘negative’ after a gap of two years but has retained the lowest investment grade of ‘BBB- for India’s sovereign rating for the last 16 years.

What Does A Baa3 Rating Mean?

A Baa3 rating is the lowest investment grade of Moody’s Long-term Corporate Obligation Ratings. These obligations are subject to moderate credit risk and considered medium grade with few speculative characteristics.

Reasons for Retaining India’s Sovereign Rating and Outlook

Moody’s said it retained the Baa3 rating with a stable outlook as India’s credit profile shows its strengths like the large, diversified economy with a potential for high growth, its strong external position, and a steady domestic financial base to support government debt.

Moodys Ups India

It also believes the ongoing global challenges such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, rising inflation, and tightened financial conditions globally will not affect India’s economic recovery from the pandemic. India has higher capital cushions and liquidity now. Also, the negative reactions between the economy and the financial policies are fading.

Though risks of high debt burden, low per capita income, weak debt affordability, and limited government effectiveness remain, analysts believe a positive economic environment will gradually reduce the government fiscal deficit in the next few years, avoiding a further decline of the sovereign credit profile.

Reasons For an Upgrade In EXIM, BCA, And Adjusted BCA Ratings

  1. The material improvements in asset quality and capital and its expectations of an increase in profit in the next 12 -18 months as the high-credit cost burden reduced drove Moody’s to upgrade EXIM India’s BCA.
  2. India’s gross non-performing loan (NPL) ratio declined from 8.75% at the end of March 2020 to 3.56% as of the end of March 2022 because of improved recovery, upgrades, and write-offs. The EXIM bank continues to have high provisions against the declining stock of gross NPLs with a net NPL ratio of 0% as of 31 March 2022 with a provision coverage ratio of 100%, which is higher than other rated Indian banks.
  3. The Indian government infused capital in the last few years improving EXIM’s Capital. It reported a Capital Adequacy Ratio of 30.49% and a Tier 1 capital ratio of 28.58% as of 31 March 2022, higher than the 20.13% and 18.70%, respectively, as of 31 March 2020.
  4. The ROA (Return on assets) rose to 0.5% as of the year ended March 2022 from 0.2% in the earlier quarter during the year, because as the asset quality improved the credit costs also declined in line with it.

EXIM’s final Baa3 rating is a two-notch jump from its previous rating as Moody believes it will get staunch support from the Indian government (Baa3 stable).

India’s Economic Scenario Now

Despite the ratings, FIIs have been flocking to the Indian stock market. In August, they turned Net Buyers with an inflow of more than Rs. 51,200 crores over the past year after months of pullback. In fact, they have been notable drivers of India’s financial market recovery. It means, that FIIs don’t specifically consider the rating when investing in Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) like India.

Will Moody’s upgrade India’s Sovereign rating?

Moody’s could upgrade India’s rating if its growth potential rose beyond expectations supported by effective economic and financial reforms that could augment private sector investments.

But the ratings could fall if the economic conditions become worse due to low growth in the medium term and a re-emergence of financial sector risks. Despite challenges, Moody’s retaining its Sovereign outlook is a positive sign for the economy.

The Q1 GDP may have fallen short of RBI’s forecast; however, India is one of the fastest-growing economies today. September 2022 saw India officially overtake the UK to become the fifth-largest economy in the world by market capitalization.

That just means there are enough opportunities for you to invest in the economy and create wealth. All you must do is take a careful look at all the aspects of the businesses, and decide on your time horizon before you invest. Remember, Long Term = Wealth Creation.

Will India become the next Agro-exporter?

It is a question that has been doing the rounds lately.

The world population could grow to almost 10 billion by 2050, increasing agricultural demand if you consider a modest economic growth of 50% compared to 2013. Any income growth in low- and middle-income countries would accelerate the dietary shift to a higher intake of fruits, vegetables, and meat than cereals. It would mean a corresponding change in the agricultural output adding pressure on natural resources.

2022 saw several countries facing food issues reversing decades of improvements. Conflict, socio-economic factors, increased natural disasters, climate change, and modified pests are a few reasons for today’s food crisis.

Additionally, the war in Ukraine increased the risk to global food security, as food prices rose and could likely remain high in the future, pushing millions into severe food insecurity. Though global food supplies remain positive, the sharp increase in food prices due to high input costs, logistics costs, and war-led trade disruptions have added to the import bills. Such increases affect the poor and developing countries as they hinge on food imports to fulfil domestic demand. 

Per World Bank’s Commodities Price Data for May 2022, the Agricultural Price Index rose 42 per cent compared to January 2021. Maize and wheat prices surged 55 per cent and 91 per cent, respectively, compared to January 2021, while rice prices fell 12 per cent.

Despite COVID disruptions, India’s exports rose 20% to $50.21bn. This rise was the highest ever for India. This is because the commodity prices in the world are booming, and we are in a unique place to capitalize on this opportunity caused due to supply chain issues and the Russia-Ukraine war. 

India now has a chance to become the next agro-exporter in the world. It exports onions, fruits, pulses, dairy products, rice, meat, grains, wheat, nuts, alcoholic beverages, cereals, cashews, vegetables, etc. Rice contributed over 17% to agricultural exports in 2021-22.

Rice exports grew 9.35 per cent to $9.65bn. Though we did not export wheat till two years ago, our wheat export in 2021-22 jumped to $2.2bn from $567mn in 2020-21. We shipped seven mn tons of wheat last year compared to 2 min tons two years

image 3
Source: IBEF Export Trend

Can This Surge Mean India Will Become The Next Agro-exporter?

India is self-sufficient, unlike China, which depends on imports to fulfil its food demands. Except for importing edible oils and a few pulses, we grow enough to meet the domestic market. It was evident when the Government could give free food to people during the pandemic without supply issues.

Countries dependent on Russia and Ukraine for food imports are suddenly facing shortages. So they looked for countries with surplus agricultural production that can become the next agro-exporter and found India had a surplus of wheat, maize, sugar, and other products.

For instance, Indonesia and Ecuador are the largest exporters of bananas. However, their exports suffered due to supply chain issues. So, India exported bananas, which increased 100 per cent y-o-y, to become one of the most prominent players in the Middle East markets. We forayed into a commodity that we did not export earlier. 

Another opportunity that India can enter is the export of eggs and poultry. The Middle East imports eggs but has not imported them from India. Exports of our poultry products rose to $71mn in 2021-22 from $58 mn in 2020-21

India does have the opportunity to export products that it has not shipped before. But, what must India do to make the most of this opportunity in the face of the food crisis?

Make India a brand: One of the first steps to becoming the exporter of the world is to create a brand for India. We export several commodities; however, none indicate they are Indian. For instance, we’ve heard of California almonds and Washington apples. In the same way, Indian products like basmati rice to turmeric must have a global identity. Therefore, the Government and private producers must create and promote brands for each category.

Improve infrastructure and supply efficiencies: The war may have opened doors for exports barred earlier. However, to ensure that we continue to export the products even after the end of the issue, we must improve our port structure, have better storage facilities, and manage overheads. In addition, we must ensure the changes happen and the brand India is marketed globally.

How Is The Government Supporting Such An Initiative?

The Government is focusing on improving agricultural productivity. It has introduced several initiatives to help agriculture. As a result, in the last few years, the share of agriculture in the GDP has declined. However, the changes and the focus have helped as the agricultural contribution to GDP rose over 20 per cent. 

The Government has several initiatives like

  • Crop diversification where the Government is looking to encourage the production of crops beyond rice, wheat, and maize.  
  • 100% FDI under government approval route for trading, including e-commerce, for food products manufactured or produced in India. 
  • Pradhan Mantri Kisan Sampada Yojna to create modern infrastructure with efficient supply chain management from the farms to the retail outlet. This scheme includes other sub-schemes like Integrated Cold chain and value addition infrastructure, Creation or Expansion of Food Processing Preservation capacities, Infrastructure of Agro-Processing clusters, and Operation Greens. 
  • Nivesh Bandhu is a dedicated investors’ platform that will facilitate ease of business and offer information on incentives and policies on a single platform.
  • Infrastructure support through 41 mega food parks, 350 cold chain projects, and 62 agro-processing clusters.  
  • Animal Husbandry Infrastructure Development Fund will facilitate dairy and meat processing investments and establish animal feed plants. In addition, the Government offers the borrowers a 3 per cent interest subvention and a credit guarantee of 25 per cent of the total borrowing. 
  • The investor Targeting and facilitation desk for the food processing ministry will help investors frame policies or strategies and keep them informed of various initiatives, opportunities, and schemes.   

Does this mean there are no hurdles to India becoming an agro-exporter?

No, there could be several issues. One of the hurdles to India becoming an agro-exporter could be increasing domestic demand for food. So India before becoming an agro-exporter will have to check the surplus available after it meets domestic food demands. Another obstacle to becoming an agro-exporter could be inconsistent supply —countries import from Ukraine and Russia because of their consistent supply. 

Can India fulfil their food demands consistently by becoming an agro-exporter? That is something we will have to see how the Government takes advantage of the opportunity in the crisis. 

We are a little late in covering the Sri Lankan Economic Crisis. But we did not want to just scratch the surface and present an overview of the situation. We were analyzing the situation to share distinctive insights that matter to you as an investor.

In this article, you will learn-

  • How one unwise move can lead to other wrong decisions
  • Why it is important to have a right management at the helm
  • What boatloads of debt can do to the entire country and its rippling effects?

Sri Lanka, an island country famous for its picturesque beaches, breezy hill stations, rich culture, clean streets, and heritage structures is now facing the worst economic crisis since its independence in 1948. The reason is the country’s enormous foreign debt of ~$50 Bn.

The country is now facing acute shortages of essentials like food, electricity, lifesaving medicines, fuel, etc. Price of items like rice and sugar has skyrocketed to Rs. 300 per kg, 400gm milk powder is available for Rs. 790 according to media reports.

Though the crisis has just surfaced, you can trace the beginning of this downturn to 2006.

What happened in 2006?

An article in Firstpost noted, “In 2006, after the end of the civil war, the Sri Lankan government tried to accelerate growth in island nation by borrowing heavily and attracting foreign capital by propping up the Sri Lankan rupee. This helped in the short-term and the economy boomed. Lifting 1.6 million people out of poverty.

This sounds like fantastic news. In fact, it is. Lifting 1.6 million people out of poverty is a remarkable achievement for an economy like Sri Lanka. However, this exuberant growth came at the cost of foreign debt of whopping 119% of the GDP. This means if Sri Lanka’s GDP was Rs. 100* the foreign debt was Rs. 119.

*Please note the illustration is just for information purposes only. The lower denominations are for the ease of understanding.

During Mahinda Rajapaksa’s regime, the former Sri Lankan President, the government borrowed heavily, which increased the country’s fiscal deficit.

A String of Wrong Decisions

Too Much China Debt

Despite the country’s worsening economic condition, Sri Lanka continued financing its ambitious infrastructure development projects under Mahinda Rajapaksa’s presidency (2005-2015). One such project was the international port development in the Hambantota district.

The former Sri Lankan government took large investment loans from state-owned Chinese banks to finance infrastructure development projects.

The government believed the Hambantota project would help its economy become a busy trade hotspot like Singapore. However, corruption in the project led the Sri Lankan government to surrender the port’s control to China as collateral after it defaulted on loan repayments.

According to New York Times, over the last decade, Sri Lanka accumulated a debt of $5 billion to China alone.

Tax Cut in 2019

Gotabaya Rajapaksa ousted Maithripala Sirisena to win the presidential election in November 2019. Soon after the election, Gotabaya announced a sweeping tax cut ahead of parliamentary ballot.

His cabinet almost halved the value added tax (VAT) from 15% to 8% and eliminated seven other taxes, including 2% nation building tax that businesses paid. This substantially depleted the government’s revenue.

These tax cuts didn’t bode well with the credit rating agencies. They downgraded Sri Lanka’s credit rating in early 2020. As a result, the country lost access to international financial markets. So, the government started using its foreign reserves to meet debt obligations.

Ban on Chemical Fertilizers and Agrochemicals

Amidst the ailing economic conditions, Gotabaya took another decision that sent inflation soaring through the rough. He declared a ban on the import of chemical fertilizers and agrochemicals to promote ‘organic only’ farming in the country on 29th April 2021.

While the decision was for a noble cause and to alleviate pressure on the forex reserves, it didn’t feel like a well-thought-out plan. Agriculture experts disapproved the move as ill-advised and unscientific.

Farmers expressed fears that such a policy shift could lead to steep drop in yields. And that’s what happened. According to a report published in The Week, the yield dropped 25% hitting outputs of tea, pepper, cinnamon, and vegetables badly.  This drop in output sent the Sri Lankan government to foreign countries asking for rice and other staple food items.

Coronavirus Ate Up the Foreign Reserves

As we mentioned earlier, Sri Lanka is famous for its clean streets, breezy mountains, beaches and more. But a series of church bombings in 2019 that led to the killing of almost 300 people including foreign nationals halted the thriving tourism sector.

Tourism, previously worth $4.4 bn, has been a pivotal contributor to Sri Lanka’s economy. Moreover, it’s a primary source of foreign currency that adds to the foreign reserves of the country.

In 2018, the tourism industry earned ~$5.6 bn that helped Sri Lanka manage its $10 bn trade deficit. But COVID-19-led travel bans and series of shutdowns took away all the foreign money that tourists brought in.

The island nation attracts a significant number of tourists from both Russia and Ukraine. When Sri Lanka was hoping to attract tourists after travel bans were removed, Russian invasion of Ukraine slowed the industry’s recovery.

In addition to this, Sri Lankan exports of tea and rubber plummeted because of lower demand. Sri Lankans working abroad lost their jobs during the same period, further decreasing foreign exchange reserves.

Beginning of the Worse

Sri Lanka plunging into a crisis hit the news in March this year when the government announced a 13-hour power cut daily. The government tried saving energy amid the ongoing crisis, but it irked the Sri Lankan public.

The power cuts left Sri Lankans without jobs and thousands flocked the streets to protest the power cuts over the next few weeks. Gotabaya declared an emergency on April 1, 2022. The Sri Lankan Cabinet resigned soon after the emergency law was imposed. That prompted Gotabaya to revoke the law.

Currently, the Sri Lankan government is in talks with the International Monetary Fund for a bailout plan. IMF had indeed assessed its accumulated debt as unsustainable.

With not enough finance to run the country, skyrocketing inflation, schools cancelling exams, acute shortage of essentials, lifesaving medicines, and the government having no clear plan to restore the country’s economy, Sri Lanka’s future relies in IMF’s hands.

Sri Lanka has $25bn worth foreign loans of which $7bn is due for repayment this year with the remaining payable by 2026. The World bank has promised to provide $600mn to help Sri Lanka meet its essential import payments.

As Sri Lanka stares at bankruptcy India plans to step-up its economic aid focusing on humanitarian requirements after supplying fuel, medicines, and rice early this year.

India has given ~$3bn to Sri Lanka since January 2022 via currency swaps, credit lines for essentials, and loan deferments.

The Sri Lankan cabinet cleared a proposal to source more fuel from India through a short-term loan from the Exim Bank of India of $200mn.

Lessons for You – The Investor

The story of Sri Lankan crisis is full of lessons for investors.

  1. An investor should not invest just because a company is coming up with growth initiatives like new product launches, territory extension, etc. Not every growth initiative or a project that company may take yield expected results.
  2. Keep an eye on how a company intends to finance its growth initiatives. Financing new projects using debt is fine but understand if the project holds merit. Study how the company intends to fulfill its debt obligations in the future. It’s a major red flag if a company axes an existing revenue stream.
  3. The Sri Lankan economic crisis highlights the importance of having a visionary management at helm. Without an intelligent head(s), it’s difficult for a company to function smoothly despite all other things in line.

Read more:  How Long-term investing helps create life-changing wealth – TOI.

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An investment advisory firm is a company that helps investors make decisions about buying and selling securities (like stocks) in exchange for a fee. They can advise clients directly or provide advisory reports and other publications about specific securities, such as high growth stock recommendations. Some firms use both methods, like Research & Ranking, India’s leading stock advisory company, specializing in smart investments and long-term stocks since 2015.

An investment advisory firm is a company that helps investors make decisions about buying and selling securities (like stocks) in exchange for a fee. They can advise clients directly or provide advisory reports and other publications about specific securities, such as high growth stock recommendations. Some firms use both methods, like Research & Ranking, India’s leading stock advisory company, specializing in smart investments and long-term stocks since 2015.

An investment advisory firm is a company that helps investors make decisions about buying and selling securities (like stocks) in exchange for a fee. They can advise clients directly or provide advisory reports and other publications about specific securities, such as high growth stock recommendations. Some firms use both methods, like Research & Ranking, India’s leading stock advisory company, specializing in smart investments and long-term stocks since 2015.