The Indian stock markets surprised many last week, clocking gains despite mixed signals from the global stage, particularly regarding inflation concerns. After a two-week consolidation phase, benchmark indices like the Sensex and Nifty rose over 2%, extending the prevailing uptrend. However, it’s important to note that the week did conclude with a slight pullback.
The Sensex and Nifty ended lower amid some volatility in the previous session. The Sensex closed down 0.27% at 79,032.73, while the Nifty dipped 0.14% to settle at 24,010.60.
So, what events should you be keeping an eye on to navigate this potentially volatile market?
10 key factors that could share the stock market this week
- Monsoon Watch: A Key Domestic Factor
The progress of the monsoon remains a top priority for investors. A healthy monsoon is crucial for India’s agricultural output, significantly impacting economic sentiment. A positive monsoon season could boost investor confidence and potentially push markets upwards. - GST Meeting and Potential Rate Adjustments
The upcoming GST Council meeting could introduce rate changes in specific sectors. These adjustments may influence market direction, so stay tuned for the meeting’s outcome updates. Additionally, the investor focus will be on the activities of foreign institutional investors (FII) and domestic institutional investors (DII), along with crude oil prices. These factors combined will offer valuable insights into overall market sentiment. - Global Cues: US Data and Fed Chair’s Speech in Focus
The global market also offers some intriguing developments. Rising US jobless claims and weak housing data have raised expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. This week, the release of US and Indian manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data and the much-awaited speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be center stage. These events can trigger volatility in the market, so pay close attention to the data releases and Powell’s commentary. - Sectoral Spotlight: Auto Sales and Budget Buzz
The auto sector is expected to be in the limelight this week with the release of June’s monthly sales figures. Analysts anticipate growth in the two-wheeler and passenger vehicle segments, while commercial vehicle sales might see a flat trend and tractor sales may decline. Furthermore, budget-related discussions could lead to sector-specific movements. While the sentiment remains bullish, dips might entice opportunistic buying, potentially supporting the markets. However, profit booking could cap strong rallies, so be prepared for both possibilities. - Corporate Action Calendar
Look for key corporate actions this week. These events, including board meetings, dividend announcements, or stock splits, can impact specific company stocks.
| Company Name | Purpose | Ex Date | Record Date |
| GEOJIT FINANCIAL SERVICES LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 1.5000 | 01-Jul-24 | 01-Jul-24 |
| GHCL LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 12.0000 | 01-Jul-24 | 01-Jul-24 |
| GHCL TEXTILES LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 0.5000 | 01-Jul-24 | 01-Jul-24 |
| LLOYDS ENTERPRISES LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 0.1000 | 01-Jul-24 | 01-Jul-24 |
| ORIENTAL CARBON & CHEMICALS LTD | Spin Off | 01-Jul-24 | 01-Jul-24 |
| TATA COMMUNICATIONS LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 16.7000 | 01-Jul-24 | |
| BAJAJ CONSUMER CARE LTD | Buy Back of Shares | 02-Jul-24 | 02-Jul-24 |
| EPIGRAL LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 5.0000 | 02-Jul-24 | 02-Jul-24 |
| OIL INDIA LTD | Bonus issue 1:2 | 02-Jul-24 | 02-Jul-24 |
| QUEST CAPITAL MARKETS LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 2.5000 | 02-Jul-24 | |
| SWASTIKA INVESTMART LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 2.0000 | 02-Jul-24 | |
| DALMIA BHARAT SUGAR AND INDUSTRIES LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 1.2500 | 03-Jul-24 | 03-Jul-24 |
| GPT INFRAPROJECTS LTD | Bonus issue 1:1 | 03-Jul-24 | 03-Jul-24 |
| JYOTHY LABS LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 3.5000 | 03-Jul-24 | |
| WORTH INVESTMENT & TRADING CO LTD | Stock Split From Rs.10/- to Rs.1/- | 03-Jul-24 | 03-Jul-24 |
| BALAJI AMINES LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 11.0000 | 04-Jul-24 | |
| ECLERX SERVICES LTD | Buy Back of Shares | 04-Jul-24 | 04-Jul-24 |
| SKF INDIA LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 130.0000 | 04-Jul-24 | 04-Jul-24 |
| SOLAR INDUSTRIES INDIA LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 8.5000 | 04-Jul-24 | |
| TATA POWER CO.LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 2.0000 | 04-Jul-24 | 04-Jul-24 |
| TIDE WATER OIL (INDIA) LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 20.0000 | 04-Jul-24 | |
| 3M INDIALTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 160.0000 | 05-Jul-24 | 05-Jul-24 |
| 3M INDIALTD | Special Dividend – Rs. – 525.0000 | 05-Jul-24 | 05-Jul-24 |
| ALLSEC TECHNOLOGIES LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 15.0000 | 05-Jul-24 | 05-Jul-24 |
| APOLLO TYRES LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 6.0000 | 05-Jul-24 | 05-Jul-24 |
| ARTEMIS MEDICARE SERVICES LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 0.4500 | 05-Jul-24 | 05-Jul-24 |
| ASTRAZENECA PHARMA INDIA LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 24.0000 | 05-Jul-24 | 05-Jul-24 |
| BALKRISHNA INDUSTRIES LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 4.0000 | 05-Jul-24 | 06-Jul-24 |
| BHARAT FORGE LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 6.5000 | 05-Jul-24 | 05-Jul-24 |
| BIOCON LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 0.5000 | 05-Jul-24 | 05-Jul-24 |
| DJ MEDIAPRINT & LOGISTICS LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 0.2000 | 05-Jul-24 | |
| DUTRON POLYMERS LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 1.5000 | 05-Jul-24 | |
| ESCORTS KUBOTA LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 18.0000 | 05-Jul-24 | |
| FUTURISTIC SOLUTIONS LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 1.0000 | 05-Jul-24 | 06-Jul-24 |
| INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES LTD | Right Issue of Equity Shares | 05-Jul-24 | 05-Jul-24 |
| MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA LTD. | Final Dividend – Rs. – 21.1000 | 05-Jul-24 | |
| MILKFOOD LTD | Interim Dividend – Rs. – 2.5000 | 05-Jul-24 | 05-Jul-24 |
| NAVIN FLUORINE INTERNATIONAL LIMITED | Final Dividend – Rs. – 7.0000 | 05-Jul-24 | 05-Jul-24 |
| NUCLEUS SOFTWARE EXPORTS LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 12.5000 | 05-Jul-24 | 05-Jul-24 |
| PIRAMAL ENTERPRISES LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 10.0000 | 05-Jul-24 | 05-Jul-24 |
| REDINGTON LTD | Dividend – Rs. – 6.2000 | 05-Jul-24 | 05-Jul-24 |
| REMEDIUM LIFECARE LTD | Bonus issue 3:1 | 05-Jul-24 | 06-Jul-24 |
| REMSONS INDUSTRIES LTD | Stock Split From Rs.10/- to Rs.2/- | 05-Jul-24 | 05-Jul-24 |
| SHRADHA Al TECHNOLOGIES LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 0.7500 | 05-Jul-24 | |
| THERMAX LTD | Dividend – Rs. – 12.0000 | 05-Jul-24 | 05-Jul-24 |
| WELSPUN ENTERPRISES LTD | Final Dividend – Rs. – 3.0000 | 05-Jul-24 |
- IPO Frenzy Continues: Three New Listings on the Horizon
The primary market is set for another exciting week, with three companies gearing up to launch their initial public offerings (IPOs). These IPOs are expected to raise over Rs 2,700 crore, keeping the IPO frenzy alive. Additionally, as many as 11 companies are scheduled to list their shares this week, including some that garnered strong investor interest during their recent IPOs. - Technical View: Nifty Faces Resistance at 24,000
After a string of positive sessions, the Nifty witnessed minor profit-booking on Friday. Despite the pullback, the near-term uptrend remains intact. However, the Nifty faces a significant hurdle at the 24,000-24,100 resistance level. Immediate support sits at 23,800, so keep an eye on these levels for potential breakout or breakdown opportunities. - F&O Cues: Options Data Reveals Key Resistance and Support Levels
Analyzing the weekly options data, the 25,000 strike price holds the maximum open interest, indicating it might act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. The 24,500 and 24,000 strikes follow it closely. Interestingly, the maximum Call writing is observed at the 25,000 strike, suggesting some profit booking at these higher levels. On the Put side, the 23,000 strike holds the maximum open interest, a crucial support level. - India VIX: Volatility Remains Below Fear Zone
The India VIX, also known as the fear index, continues to trade comfortably below the 15-mark and the 200-day EMA, providing some solace to bullish investors. However, it’s important to note that despite a slight decline last Friday, the VIX gained 4.72% for the week, hinting at underlying market nervousness. - PMI Power: Gauging Manufacturing Strength
While the FOMC minutes, Powell’s speech, and US economic data take center stage, don’t forget about global developments. The release of manufacturing PMI data for India (HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final for June) and the US (S&P Global Manufacturing PMI) will provide insights into the health of the manufacturing sector in each region. A strong PMI reading indicates expansion, while a weak reading suggests contraction. Events like the ECB non-monetary policy meeting and Eurozone inflation data can also influence market movements.
Conclusion
This week promises to be data-rich with a multitude of factors influencing market direction. Remember, this is not an exhaustive list; unforeseen events can always impact the market. Stay informed, analyze the data, and make investment decisions based on your risk tolerance and goals.
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I’m Archana R. Chettiar, an experienced content creator with
an affinity for writing on personal finance and other financial content. I
love to write on equity investing, retirement, managing money, and more.